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Fixed Income

January In Review
The late-2023 broad-based rally across major global financial assets fizzled at the start of this year, with most of the assets we track selling off in January. Chinese stocks continued to perform exceptionally poorly, with the investable and domestic…
Daily Insights
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For The Fed, The Waiting Is The Hardest Part

In this Insight, we share our thoughts on yesterday’s FOMC meeting and the Fed’s likely next moves, with implications for US bond strategy.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, US Bond Strategy
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Monthly Portfolio Update: Waiting For The Recession

When will the US also buckle under high rates? We expect a US recession to begin around mid-year. Stay defensive.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
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MacroQuant Model Update: The Party Is Winding Down

Following the release of the white paper yesterday, today we are sending you the inaugural issue of the MacroQuant Monthly, a report summarizing the output of our next-generation MacroQuant 2.0 model.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Tight Credit Spreads Offer Inadequate Protection
The strong H2/2023 rally in global credit markets can be attributed to lower global inflation and the associated reduction in global interest rate volatility. However, our colleagues at BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service argue that credit…
Daily Insights
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The UK And Japan Are At Wage Inflation Extremes. Why?

We describe and explain the wide disparity of wage inflation across G7 economies, and discuss what it means for the Fed, ECB, BoE, and BoJ policy moves in the coming year. Plus: we highlight two investments ripe for reversal, and two investments ripe for rebound.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Favor European Peripheral Bonds Over High Yield Credit
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, European sovereign bonds in the periphery offer more upside than high-yield (HY) corporate bonds. Many question the outlook for peripheral bonds in Europe due to the ECB’s shrinking balance…
Daily Insights
Deflationary Pressures Are Dampening Chinese Industrial Profits
China’s industrial profits registered their second consecutive annual contraction last year, falling by 2.3% in 2023. The full year contraction comes despite a surge in industrial profits near year-end. Profit growth came in at 16.8% y/y in December…
Daily Insights
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A Nascent Mini Cycle

Is the rebound in European PMIs enough to boost the appeal of European risk assets?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary, Jeremie Peloso
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GFIS Model Bond Portfolio 2023 Review & 2024 Outlook: Once More, With Feeling

We present the performance review of the Global Fixed Income Strategy Model Bond Portfolio for 2023. We also discuss the outlook for 2024 performance based on our Key Views for the year. The portfolio is positioned to benefit from a year where the global backdrop will be one of weak growth and further declines in inflation, leading central bank to begin cutting interest rates.

Global Fixed Income Strategy

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