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Fixed Income

Will Cooling Inflation Derail BoJ's Exit From Ultra-Loose Policy?
Inflation cooled for the second consecutive month in Japan with annual headline CPI inflation falling from 2.8% y/y to 2.6% y/y in December. Underlying inflation gauges also cooled, with the December prints of core and “core core” (excluding fresh food and…
Daily Insights
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The Fed’s Plan For Policy Easing

An update to our outlooks for the Fed’s interest rate and balance sheet policies following this week’s remarks from Fed Governor Waller.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
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Indian Equities: Defying Gravity?

Decelerating nominal sales, a peaking credit cycle, and very high valuations - Indian stocks will not escape the carnage when risk assets globally begin to sell off.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik
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The Intrinsic Value Of Bitcoin And Gold, Finally Explained

The SEC has just approved bitcoin spot ETFs, but does bitcoin have any ‘intrinsic’ value? In this Special Report we explain why the answer is yes, how bitcoin compares with gold, and why the bitcoin price could ultimately head well north of $100,000.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Are Inflationary Pressures Picking Up In Canada?
Canadian government bond yields jumped on Tuesday, with the 10-year yield rising by nearly 14 basis points. While most other major DM government bonds also sold off, the move in Canadian yields was relatively more pronounced. Both global and domestic forces…
Daily Insights
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Iowa Caucus: So What?

The market will eventually be forced to react to rising odds of a sharp US national policy reversal. Investors should overweight government bonds and defensive equity sectors.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken
Economic Uncertainty Is Top Concern Among Canadian Businesses
Canada’s Business Outlook Survey (BOS) indicator increased slightly in Q4, suggesting that sentiment stabilized at the end of 2023. In particular, easing inflationary pressures amid weaker demand and greater competition drove the 0.3-point uptick. Notably,…
Daily Insights
Time To Bet On Curve Steepeners?
The Treasury curve bull steepened meaningfully on Friday with the 2-year yield falling by nearly 11 basis points versus the 3 basis point decline in the 10-year yield. A softer than anticipated US PPI release prompted this move. The unexpected 0.1% m/m…
Daily Insights
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Inflation, Interest Rates And Currencies: What Matters Today For Investors?

In light of the hotter-than-expected US CPI report, we look at what interest rate currency investors should focus on. Our conclusion largely keeps our existing trades in place, as published in our outlook, a few weeks ago.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
Credit Is Unattractively Priced
US corporate bonds performed well last year with both investment grade and high-yield spreads narrowing in 2023. Indeed, the 12-month breakeven spreads are relatively low – especially in the case of investment grade.  This means that corporates have a…
Daily Insights

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