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Fixed Income

Bearish Long-Term Outlook for the US Dollar
Although BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service regards fears of dedollarization as overblown, the team is bearish on the longer-term outlook for the greenback due to two key concerns. First, the dollar remains overvalued. It currently trades…
Daily Insights
Fourth Quarter 2023 Strategy Outlook: On A Knife-Edge

In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of 2023 and beyond.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Are US Equity Valuations Consistent With The Level Of Interest Rates?
One of the few things US equity investors agree upon these days is that the S&P 500 is expensive whether it is relative to history, other asset classes, or the level of interest rates. But how overvalued is the market? To this end, BCA’s US equity…
Daily Insights
Timing The BoJ's Next Move
As expected, the Bank of Japan voted unanimously to keep policy unchanged on Friday. The policy rate remains at -0.1% and the central bank maintains Yield Curve Control (YCC) on 10-year JGB yields. To the extent that the BoJ made an important tweak to its…
Daily Insights
The Corporate Financing Buffer
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service, nonfinancial corporate businesses have been more insulated from rising interest rates than they typically are during major rate-hike campaigns, but the buffer is shrinking.. Households have been…
Daily Insights
This Cycle's Distinct Features

Emergency pandemic fiscal and monetary policy measures buffered households and nonfinancial corporate businesses in ways that have acted to lengthen the lags between monetary policy changes and their effect on the economy. We believe, however, the extended lags are merely delaying the recession, not cancelling it. We expect to downgrade equities on a tactical basis from equal weight to underweight soon.

US Investment Strategy, Global Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
The BoE Stands Pat
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted 5-4 in favor of maintaining its bank rate at 5.25% on Thursday. The four members that voted against the pause all preferred a 25-basis point rate increase. The tight margin underscores that the decision to…
Daily Insights
A Triple Whammy For US Stocks
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, the combination of rising oil prices, an appreciating US dollar, and mounting US bond yields constitutes a triple whammy for US share prices. One risk that has recently emerged is the…
Daily Insights
Questions From The Road

The global downturn will be shallower than it was in 2008 and in 2020 but will last for longer. The primary reason for a more prolonged downturn is that policymakers in the US, Europe, and China will be reluctant to proactively and aggressively stimulate. The combination of rising oil prices, an appreciating US dollar, and mounting US bond yields constitutes a triple whammy for US share prices.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
UK Inflation Surprise Opens The Door To A Less Hawkish BoE
The August UK inflation report produced a large downside surprise. Headline CPI rose +0.3% month-on-month, versus expectations of a +0.7% increase. Year-over-year headline CPI inflation slowed to 6.7% from 6.8%, a sizeable miss versus the consensus forecast…
Daily Insights

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