Fixed Income

While we are sympathetic to the view that the Fed could temporarily achieve a soft landing, we are skeptical that it could stick that landing for very long. Stocks could strengthen into year-end, with small caps potentially leading the charge. But the rally will fizzle out next year as the global economy begins to sink into recession.

The implications of this morning’s CPI report for Fed policy, Treasuries and TIPS.

In this report, we review our European fixed income strategy recommendations ahead of tomorrow’s critical ECB meeting

Real wages are set to rise in CE3 economies with implications for their asset markets and currencies. Of the three, Polish assets and the zloty are the most vulnerable.

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for September 2023.

If we look at global growth as an aircraft, the plane is experiencing failing engines and will lose more altitude in the coming months. Yet, neither Chinese authorities, nor the Fed or the ECB will be quick to come to the rescue as global growth downshifts. These dynamics herald a stronger US dollar and lower EM risk asset prices.