Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

Fixed Income

Mind The Gaps

Numerous divergences have opened up between global risk assets and global business cycle variables. These gaps are unsustainable, and odds are that the recoupling will occur to the downside with risk assets selling off.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
US Core CPI Inflation: Steady In July
As expected, the US CPI release shows the monthly headline and core inflation gauges were both unchanged at 0.2% m/m in July. Notably, annualized monthly core inflation fell below 2% for the second consecutive month. Similarly, the annual change in core CPI…
Daily Insights
Return Scenarios For Holding US Treasurys Are Asymmetrical
The rise in bond yields over the past few weeks has made some investors wonder whether US Treasurys and other government bonds really are a good hedge against recession. Could there be an environment in which the economy goes into recession but bond yields…
Daily Insights
Hedging Fiscal Dominance With Gold
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, gold’s appeal as a safe haven and store of value will increase as fiscal dominance overtakes monetary dominance at the Fed. Fitch’s downgrade of US debt from AAA to AA+ hit markets as the…
Daily Insights
Disinflation Trend Intact

Some thoughts on this morning’s inflation number and implications for Treasury yields and TIPS.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
The Death Of T.I.N.A.: Income Edition
During the last economic expansion, a structurally overweight allocation to stocks was at least partially warranted by the idea that “There Is No Alternative” – or “T.I.N.A.” During the last expansion, very accommodative monetary policy significantly reduced…
Daily Insights
China’s Engine Is Failing, And The World Economy Is Losing Altitude

China has generated 41 percent of the world’s economic growth through the past ten years, al-most double the 22 percent contribution from the US. Now that the Chinese growth engine is failing, we explain why it is arithmetically impossible for world growth to maintain the altitude of the past few decades. And we discuss an important investment implication.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Not Immaculate (GeoRisk Update)

The global economy will not enjoy an “immaculate disinflation” but will suffer a very maculate one due to China’s growth slowdown and restrictive monetary policy in the developed world. Investors should stay overweight low-beta assets.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken
Bullish Implications For Greek 10-Year Government Bond Spreads
Greece is experiencing a strong economic revival from its lows of the Sovereign Debt Crisis. The Hellenic Republic has shown resilience, with an annual real GDP growth of 4.5%, outpacing the Euro Area’s growth by 2%. Greece is also faring better on the…
Daily Insights
GBP Is At Risk Of A Pullback
According to BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income and Foreign Exchange Strategy services, the British pound is overbought in the near-term and is at risk of a pullback on easing rate expectations, but this will represent a medium-term buying opportunity. The…
Daily Insights

Related Topics

AI BCA Indicators/Model BDCs Bubbles/Crises/Manias Commodities Commodities & Energy Sector Country In-Focus Currencies Defaults Deleveraging See more Topics