Geopolitics
Over the next few months, Japan’s new government will ease fiscal policy, which will improve domestic demand on the margin. Monetary policy may tighten further in the short run but not too much over the long run. The geopolitical setting drives Japan into accommodative economic policy.
The Election Day is finally upon us. No, there is no final “silver bullet” forecast contained in this email. Just our long-term forecast of how the election will, no matter who wins, impact the markets.
A reaction to this morning’s employment report and a preview of the potential bond market implications of next week’s US election and FOMC meeting.
As the odds of a Trump victory rise, European assets underperform US ones. What would be the immediate impact of a Trump victory on European stocks?
Trump may be favored, but Harris is now underrated. The Senate is highly likely to go Republican – Harris would be gridlocked if she pulled off a victory. If Trump wins it will be a full sweep. Expect volatility in the short term.
Germany’s economy has lagged that of the rest of Europe for nearly 10 years. So have German stocks. Investors are extrapolating these trends to bet on the country’s deindustrialization. Could Germany manage to beat dismal expectations?