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Geopolitics

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Bond Meltdown, Republican Meltdown

There is a connection between the bond market meltdown and Republican Party’s meltdown. Investors should expect more short-term financial market volatility as a result of the triple whammy of high bond yields, high oil prices, and a strong dollar.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken
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EIS Special Series: PIGS Have Wings
Special Report

Introducing our Special Series to assess where Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain stand today. Stay tuned for more.

European Investment Strategy by Jeremie Peloso
US Core PCE Inflation Continues To Moderate
The US Personal Income and Outlays report for August sent a positive signal about the disinflationary trend. The core PCE deflator – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – slowed to a 33-month low of 0.1% m/m, below expectations that it would remain at 0.2%…
Daily Insights
Oil + Gas Capex Levels, Growth Dwarf Copper
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, the global energy transition will become more disorderly, if oil-and-gas capex growth continues to outpace that of critical minerals.   The trajectories of capex investment in…
Daily Insights
The Near-Term Bullish Case For The USD
Last week, the Federal Reserve signaled that it expects to deliver one last rate hike this year. Similarly, some of its European counterparts signaled that they are at or close to the end of their hiking cycles. Where does this leave the outlook for USD…
Daily Insights
Overweight European Energy Stocks
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, energy stocks are an appealing overweight as a hedge against oil supply cuts. For now, the earnings of the energy sector continue to lag that of the broad market. However, relative earnings…
Daily Insights
Fourth Quarter US Political Outlook 2023

US fiscal, monetary, and foreign policies are unlikely to deliver any dovish surprises for investors in Q4, due to the impending government shutdown, persistent inflation, and instability among OPEC+ and China.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken
BCA’s Oil Call Is Now Consensus
Our Commodity & Energy Strategy colleagues’ once-out-of-consensus call on crude oil prices – i.e., benchmark Brent prices averaging $94/bbl in 2H23 and trading above $100/bbl by December – now is the dominant narrative.  So, of course, they figured…
Daily Insights
Fourth Quarter Geopolitical Outlook 2023

China’s reopening faltered and now it is applying moderate stimulus. OPEC 2.0’s production discipline is getting results, with oil prices climbing. The Fed will not be able to deliver dovish surprises in Q4 2023. Investors should expect stock market and commodity volatility and prefer defensive positioning.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken
Why Democrats Will Stick With Biden, Then Harris
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, the Democratic Party will stick with the Biden-Harris ticket for longer than anyone expects. Changes to the ticket should be seen as negative for risk assets because they increase the odds of…
Daily Insights

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