Global
Export dynamics of small open economies are a bellwether for global growth. The latest Taiwanese and Korean export numbers are consistent with a revival in global trade. Taiwanese export orders grew by 1.2% y/y in March following a 10.4% y/y contraction in…
The Bitcoin halving is a crucial landmark in the Bitcoin protocol. It refers to the process by which rewards for mining bitcoin are cut by half. It occurs roughly every four years, with previous halvings occurring in November 2012, July 2016 and May 2020. The…
The equity risk premium – calculated as the 12-month forward earnings yield minus the 10-year real rate – continues to drop both for US and global stocks, standing at 2.7% and 3.7% respectively. The compression of the equity risk premium has been the result…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, the US-Russia conflict will re-escalate pre-election. Russia has taken 18% of Ukraine’s territory but has not yet clinched its victory. The western powers could still support a Ukrainian…
Unlike most advanced economies that are flirting with recession due to weak demand, the ‘inverted’ US economy is motoring along due to strong supply, from a combination of surging labour participation and surging immigration. We go through the implications for stocks, bonds, interest rates, and the dollar. Plus: IXJ, PEP, and MCD are good tactical outperformance candidates.
UK stocks posted one of the largest positive abnormal returns (z-score) among the major financial markets we tracked in March. The MSCI UK index has gained 2% relative to Eurozone stocks since late February. However, the relative performance of UK equities…
In the near term, favor oil and oil producers outside the Gulf Arab states. Over a 12-month horizon, favor US and North American equities, defensive sectors over cyclicals, and safe-assets. Within cyclicals, stick to energy and defense.
US, European and Japanese small caps have underperformed their large cap counterparts by 22.6%, 15.3% and 10.1% respectively since 2021. They now face conflicting forces. On the one hand, they are extremely beaten down and cheap, potentially offering a good…
The bitcoin ETFs are breaking several records. The Ishares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) from Blackrock is closing in on $20 billion in assets, surpassing ETF heavy weights like Ishares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM), Ishares Japan (EWJ) and Ishares TIP Bond ETF (TIP).…
Global material stocks have underperformed over the past 12 months, returning only 11.3% vs 21.4% for the overall market. But could they be a buy now? There are several arguments to argue that they will: The ISM has begun to stabilize and seems to be…