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Global

March In Review
The soft-landing narrative dominated the behavior of financial markets in March, with most major global risk assets posting above average returns. In particular, the burgeoning ‘risk on’ sentiment led to a rally across global equity markets. On this front,…
Daily Insights
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Quarterly Portfolio Outlook: On A Tightrope

The global economy is wobbling precariously between slowing growth and reaccelerating inflation. This is unlikely to end well. Stay cautious, and hedge against both recession and inflation.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
Will Commodities Continue To Rally?
The recent rally in commodity markets is drawing the attention of the investment community and financial media. It’s not just cocoa – which has experienced a staggering 118.4% year to date increase that has further pushed up its price gains to 342% since…
Daily Insights
Three Tips For Thematic Investing
Thematic investing has become increasingly important for investors over the past few years. And yet, in spite of the popularity of thematic strategies, the vast majority of investors underperform when buying into such strategies. A recent study by…
Daily Insights
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The Big Story: The US Economy Is ‘Inverted’

For the first time in at least fifty years, US labour supply is running well below labour demand, meaning the US economy is ‘inverted’. We discuss how and why the economy inverted, and what it means for recession, inflation, and asset allocation. Plus: NVDA is at a consolidation point.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Broadening Out?
The US equity rally has recently stopped narrowing with the gap between the market cap-weighted and equal-weighted indices for the S&P 500 stabilizing over the past month. Indeed, this has coincided with a shift in market leadership. Energy, Materials,…
Daily Insights
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Chatting With A Chatbot: A Year Later (Part II)
Special Report

GAI is a powerful force that will revolutionize the global economy and we are sold on this long-term investment theme. To partake in the upward momentum, we recommend a nuanced approach. The GAI infrastructure cohort is now overbought - there should be a better entry point. The models and applications companies and early adopters are less of a crowded trade and offer more opportunities.

US Equity Strategy, Geopolitical Strategy by Irene Tunkel
Price Pressures Have Not Fully Abated
Both supply- and demand-side forces contributed to the inflation surge in 2021/2022. According to the San Francisco Fed’s estimates, the contribution of demand-side forces to annual core PCE inflation jumped from -0.09 percentage points (pp) in February 2021…
Daily Insights
A Beacon Of Optimism In Sweden?
Swedish economic data is usually good at sniffing out the outlook for global growth. Looking at a broad swath of indicators, from domestic conditions to barometers of external demand, our colleagues from BCA’s Foreign Exchange Strategy and Global Investment…
Daily Insights
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A Tug Of War

Despite a couple of rate cuts in H2 2024, borrowing costs will remain elevated in real terms amid lower inflation in the US and Europe. This and tightening fiscal policy will hinder domestic demand in advanced economies. Domestic demand in China and EM ex-China will remain very tepid, with risks skewed to the downside.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan

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AI BCA Indicators/Model BDCs Bubbles/Crises/Manias Commodities Commodities & Energy Sector Country In-Focus Currencies Defaults Deleveraging See more Topics