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Global

Where Are Copper Prices Headed In 2024?
2023 was a year of mystery for the copper market. On the one hand, China’s copper intake boomed last year despite the travails of the mainland economy and shrinking property construction. On the other hand, global copper supply mushroomed amidst persistent…
Daily Insights
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Where We Have Conviction

Presently, our four high-conviction themes are: (1) the US dollar will rally as US growth continues to outpace the rest of the world; (2) US equities will continue to outperform EM and European stocks until a major sell-off occurs; (3) a US profit margin squeeze is imminent; (4) EM domestic bonds and sovereign USD bonds are due for a setback.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
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Month-In-Review: Changes In The FX Attractiveness Ranking

This week, we review our currency positions, based on the latest data from G10 economies.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
Qatar's Big Bet
According to BCA Research's Commodity & Energy Strategy service, Qatar will be the winner as it takes advantage of the global energy transition towards renewables and the world fragments under economic and military competition. Qatar recently…
Daily Insights
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Expected Inflation Surges, Just As Expected

Expected inflation has surged to its highest level in a year. This has surprised many people, but expected inflation is behaving just as expected. Expected inflation is not a prophecy, it is just a mathematical function of delivered inflation. We discuss what this means for central banks in the US, UK, euro area, and Japan. Plus: bitcoin’s structural uptrend to $100,000+ is still intact.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Dax 40 Reaches New Highs: How Much Further Upside?
The stock market of the Eurozone’s largest economy keeps grinding higher with the DAX 40 closing at new highs last week. Since its October low, the index of German blue-chip companies advanced by 20%. Does this rally have legs? On a relative basis,…
Daily Insights
Global Manufacturing PMI Returns To Growth
The JPM Global Manufacturing PMI improved from 50.0 to 50.3 in February, indicating that global manufacturing activity is growing again after having contracted for 18 months. Notably, new orders expanded from previously contracting levels (from 49.8 to…
Daily Insights
February In Review
The global equity rally – which fizzled at the start of the year – picked up steam again in February with nearly all major regions posting above average returns. After having underperformed last year, Chinese stocks led their global counterparts in terms of…
Daily Insights
Trump's Trade Policy Would Be The Greatest Cyclical Risk For Investors
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy and The Bank Credit Analyst services, trade policy under a second Trump presidency represents the greatest cyclical risk to investors. In 2018, the Trump administration’s trade war with China and several…
Daily Insights
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Monthly Portfolio Update: Recession Thesis Remains Intact

Amid patchy global growth, the US economy remains resilient. However, tight monetary policy will eventually trigger a recession in the US too. The stock market rally has been very narrow. Stay underweight risk assets.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans

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