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Global

Will The Surge In Taiwanese Exports Be Sustained?
Taiwan’s December trade data corroborates the signal from other Asian exporters (such as South Korea) that global manufacturing activity is experiencing a mini revival. Taiwanese exports surged by 11.8% y/y last month, surprising expectations of a much tamer…
Daily Insights
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The 4 Key Indicators Of The US Jobs Market Challenge The Immaculate Disinflationists

The Fed faces a dilemma. Cut rates early to avoid a recession, but at the risk of not slaying wage inflation. Or, not cut rates early to ensure that wage inflation is slayed, but at the risk of a downturn. Faced with such a dilemma, the lesser evil is to slay wage inflation even at the risk of a downturn. Meaning that the market has overpriced early rate cuts. We discuss some other investment implications, and identify two rebound candidates.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
2023 Commodities In Review
The commodity complex performed exceptionally poorly last year. Industrial metals and crude oil were among the few major financial assets we track that posted negative z-scores in 2023. Indeed, the 12% drop in the Golman Sachs Commodity Index in 2023 follows…
Daily Insights
2023 Currency In Review
Following a strong rally in the prior two years, the performance of the US dollar was significantly weaker in 2023. The DXY index ended last year down 0.9%, after gaining 3.3% and 6.4% in 2021 and 2022, respectively. Importantly, the USD weakness was…
Daily Insights
The Dollar In 2024
The dollar has kicked off 2024 on a tear. The closely followed DXY index bottomed on Thursday December 28th, and has since risen almost 2%. Year-to-date, the only major currency that has held up against the dollar is the Mexican peso, with the yen continuing…
Daily Insights
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US Just A Whisker Away From Recession, Says The Joshi Rule

Following today’s US jobs data release, the Joshi rule real-time US recession indicator inched up to 0.18 and is now just a whisker from its recession event-horizon of 0.20.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
2023 Regional Equities In Review
China’s equity market stands out as a major underperformer vis-à-vis its global peers in 2023. The 13% drawdown in China’s investable stock price contrasts with the 20% rally in the MSCI ACW Index. It reflects the country’s disappointing recovery as…
Daily Insights
2023 Equity Sectors In Review
The AI craze was the dominant force driving difference in equity sector returns in 2023. Broadly-defined technology sectors were the top three outperformers last year with IT, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary soaring by 50%, 36%, and 28%,…
Daily Insights
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Monthly Portfolio Update: Can Central Banks Really Save Us?

The market is excited by the idea that the Fed will cut rates early this year, even without a recession. But is that likely, with inflation still set to be around 2.8% mid-year?

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
Global Factory Activity Remains Soft
December PMIs indicate that the global manufacturing sector is not experiencing a meaningful rebound. The Global Manufacturing PMI declined from 49.3 to 49.0 in December, marking the sixteenth consecutive month of a sub-50 reading. The output, new orders,…
Daily Insights

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AI BCA Indicators/Model BDCs Bubbles/Crises/Manias Commodities Commodities & Energy Sector Country In-Focus Currencies Defaults Deleveraging See more Topics