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Global

Singapore NODX: The Contraction Eases
Singapore is a small open economy that is highly sensitive to fluctuations in global and Asian economic activity. This characteristic makes its exports a good bellwether for global growth. On this front, the upside surprise in Singapore's non-oil domestic…
Daily Insights
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Israel At War: Synopsis Of Causes And Effects
Special Report

Investors underestimate the likelihood of the war in Israel spilling outside of Gaza, and engulfing wider swaths of the Middle East, endangering energy supplies. Stay overweight Energy and Aerospace & Defense.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
Rates Selloff: Keeping It Real
The last few weeks saw a repricing of nominal yields to levels not breached since before the Great Financial Crisis. Breaking down the US 10-year Treasury yield into real and inflation expectations components reveals the selloff was mostly driven by the…
Daily Insights
Taiwanese Exports Unexpectedly Return To Growth
Taiwanese exports unexpectedly grew for the first time in just over a year in September – sending a positive signal about the global manufacturing cycle. The 3.4% y/y increase surprised anticipations of a moderation in the rate of decline from -7.3% y/y to…
Daily Insights
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The Time To Buy Bonds

The sharp sell-off in long duration bonds (ticker TLT) has reached the collapsed 130-day complexity that implies a probable and playable rebound. More strategically, long-duration bonds yielding close to 5 percent are an excellent structural investment assuming central banks choose to slay inflation and the cost is a near-term recession. We discuss how to time and how to play the potential rebound.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Global Risk-Off Sentiment Weighing On EM Currencies
EM currencies have gotten caught up in the risk off sentiment across global financial markets. The JP Morgan Emerging Markets currency index has fallen to a new record low amid the US dollar’s ongoing appreciation. While the EM currency index has been on a…
Daily Insights
Are Oil Prices On A Slippery Slope?
Oil prices are having a tough start to Q4. The price of brent has collapsed by 13% over the past week, with the bulk of the selloff occurring on Wednesday and continuing into Thursday. Brent now stands below $85/bbl. There are multiple suspects behind the…
Daily Insights
Unwinding
The September update of the J.P.Morgan Global Services PMI inched down from 51.1 to 50.8 in September. This marks the fourth consecutive month of decline and brings the headline index to its lowest level since January. The New Business and New Export Business…
Daily Insights
MacroQuant 1.0 Update
Our Global Investment Strategy service’s MacroQuant 1.0 model – which is calibrated to produce recommendations over a 30-day investment horizon – is currently overweight equities and underweight bonds and cash. Model: The asset allocation decision is…
Daily Insights
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The ‘Sahm Rule’ Recession Trigger Is Good, But The ‘Joshi Rule’ Is Better

We unveil the ‘Joshi rule’ real-time recession indicator as a much better version of the Federal Reserve’s own ‘Sahm rule’. And we identify what would trigger these recession indicators in this week’s and future US jobs reports. Plus: airlines, soybeans, and tin are all good rebound candidates based on their collapsed short-term complexities.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi

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AI BCA Indicators/Model BDCs Bubbles/Crises/Manias Commodities Commodities & Energy Sector Country In-Focus Currencies Defaults Deleveraging See more Topics