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Global

The Most Important Charts For The Next Dollar Move

In this week’s report, we assess the key reasons why the dollar has risen, and if that is set to continue.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
The US Market Reigns Supreme
Strategists arguing for an end of the outperformance of US equities over international stocks have pointed to the lofty valuations of American stocks vis-à-vis their global counterparts. Moreover, they have highlighted that US tech companies, which have led…
Daily Insights
Bond Yields And Cyclicals Versus Defensives
Since the beginning of the year, our equally-weighted global cyclicals index has outperformed equally-weighted defensives by about 13%. As the chart above shows, this relative performance trend has been extremely positively correlated with US 10-year…
Daily Insights
Carbon Credits: Short In The Short Run, Long In The Long Run
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, the structural bull case for carbon credits remains compelling. However, tactical investors should brace for prices to plateau or even correct over the next 12-to-24 months. The long-term…
Daily Insights
Global Growth: Failing Engines

If we look at global growth as an aircraft, the plane is experiencing failing engines and will lose more altitude in the coming months. Yet, neither Chinese authorities, nor the Fed or the ECB will be quick to come to the rescue as global growth downshifts. These dynamics herald a stronger US dollar and lower EM risk asset prices.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
A Goldilocks Economy Is Just A Fairy Tale

The broader rally that started in June is premised on a Goldilocks narrative that will prove to be a fairy tale. Either by stubborn inflation. Or, by higher unemployment that shows that the war on inflation is far from costless. Or, by both. We discuss the implications for stocks and bonds. And we reveal our new top long dollar cross.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
August Survey Results: Recession Delayed
In the monthly Daily Insights Survey we conducted over the past week, we asked about our readers’ outlook for the US economy, US stocks, and China’s contribution to global growth. On the outlook for the US economy, the majority of respondent (82%) expect…
Daily Insights
MacroQuant Model Update: Global Equities
Our Global Investment Strategy Service’s MacroQuant 1.0 model favors the US and India within the equity universe. The 1.0 version of the MacroQuant model is calibrated to produce recommendations over a 30-day investment horizon. MacroQuant 1.0 is…
Daily Insights
Global Manufacturing Downturn Slows
The Global Manufacturing PMI suggests that although the global manufacturing downturn remains intact, the pace of deterioration slowed in August. The headline PMI index ticked up by 0.4 points to 49. In particular, the Output, New Orders, and New Export…
Daily Insights
Unsupervised Indicators Signal High Probability Of An Equity Reversal
Unsupervised methods, like Principal Component Analysis (PCA), can create powerful indicators that are based purely on the structure of the data and void of researcher bias. Therefore, they can provide agnostic evidence to support BCA’s fundamental,…
Daily Insights

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AI BCA Indicators/Model BDCs Bubbles/Crises/Manias Commodities Commodities & Energy Sector Country In-Focus Currencies Defaults Deleveraging See more Topics