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Global

Don’t Bet On A Lithium Rebound… Yet
Our Commodities Strategy team advises against positioning for a near-term rebound in lithium prices, given the current headwinds from soft EV sales growth. They recommend patience, with more compelling opportunities likely to emerge later in the decade as…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
April 2: Peak Trade Tensions?
Markets may be bracing for April 2, but the real surprise could be how unsurprising it ends up being. Our Chart Of The Week comes from GeoMacro Chief Strategist Marko Papic, who sees the looming tariff salvo as the peak of de-globalization panic. With Beltway…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
US Recession NOT Imminent, Says This New Indicator

The US economy has never entered a demand-driven recession without labour demand running below labour supply and without the job vacancy rate running below the unemployment rate. Right now though, US labour demand is still running 1.7 million workers above labour supply, and the job vacancy rate is running comfortably above the unemployment rate. This suggests that the labour market is still supply-constrained, and that a demand-driven recession is not imminent. We discuss the investment implications. Plus, more about our ‘trade of the century’: long cotton versus coffee.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Flash PMIs Point To Low Global Growth
The March PMIs point to a low growth buffer outside the US as uncertainty engulfs the global economy. Aggregate price pressures were contained in March, but input prices still increased in the US. While the market reaction was risk-on, with the S&P 500…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
South Africa: The Coalition Government Honeymoon Is Over
Our Emerging Market strategists reviewed their recommendations on South African assets as economic prospects start fading. South Africa’s fiscal tightening will suppress growth without achieving the necessary 4.2% primary surplus to stabilize public…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Gold Tests The $3,000 Level
Gold is testing the $3,000/oz level. The yellow metal had a great run, outperforming every DM currency for the past few months. Despite rising real yields since the beginning of the year, gold prices are up nearly 15%.The relationship between real yields and…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Currency Valuation And Long-Term Returns: Part III

This report is our Part III series on valuation and subsequent returns, where we recalibrate our short-term models to emphasize signals over the next nine-to-twelve months. We will henceforth call these models STTM: Short Term Timing Models.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
The Trade War Is On
The Trump administration launched its biggest trade action on Tuesday, levying 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods, and an additional 10% to current tariffs on Chinese imports. Given its crucial role in US supply chains, Canadian energy only sees a 10%…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Escaping Europe’s Liquidity Trap

Europe’s resilience to global liquidity deterioration isn’t a fluke—it signals a structural shift. Our latest report explains why the decline in precautionary money demand marks the end of Europe’s liquidity trap and what it means for investors.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Counterpointwebcast
2025 Key Views: 1st Quarter Update
In this webcast, Dhaval will give an update on his key views for 2025. The discussion will include: Why the US is heading into ‘mini stagflation’. Why the BoJ must hike interest rates, and the global consequences. The outlook for global bond yields and the dollar. The latest advances to our complexity analysis and indicators. When the bull market will end.
Counterpoint Webcast

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