Gov Sovereigns/Treasurys

US Treasury yields bounced after this morning’s employment report. We offer our updated views about how long the recent trading range will hold.

MORENA has once again swept the Mexican election: Claudia Sheinbaum will be president, with little to no constraint in Congress. All in all, Mexican politics will remain stable and overall supportive of markets. In the medium term, fiscal spending will return to conservatism and the constitutional reforms will lead to mixed fiscal and economic repercussions. In the long term, however, fiscal and institutional risks will rise. We advise investors to remain overweight Mexican risk assets relative to EM in cyclical and structural time horizons, but prepare for Mexican markets to sell off in absolute and relative terms in the next couple of months.

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for June 2024.

We comment on whether Treasury market valuation is sufficiently attractive to get long bonds and consider some of the common arguments for why yields may yet make new highs.

In this Special Report we assess the absolute and relative attractiveness of developed market government bonds using several fair value models. Longer-term investors who are focused on value should overweight US long-maturity bonds, and favor Spanish, Australian, and potentially UK government bonds within a DM ex-US allocation.

We dig into the USD-denominated Emerging Market Sovereign Index to see which credit tiers and countries offer value relative to US Credit.

Our updated views on Treasury yields and Fed policy following this morning’s CPI report.

German Bunds have cheapened considerably, and the ECB is about to start cutting rates. Does this combination guarantee immediate profits from buying these bonds?

In this report, we review our trade recommendations based on incoming data in the last month.

An update to our views on UK rates and currency following today’s Bank of England meeting.