Gov Sovereigns/Treasurys

Our reaction to today’s FOMC meeting and the Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding Announcement.

We maintain our view that China’s economic growth in the coming months will remain lackluster. Beijing's recent measures to provide additional financing may help to bridge the gap in government spending in the rest of 2023 and into 2024, but the impact on growth will be very limited.

What will the next manufacturing cycle look like in Europe and how will risk assets perform? Lessons from the recent past.

A look at recent data on economic growth, inflation and the labor market, and a discussion of the implications for Fed policy and bond strategy.

This week’s report contains an update on the Treasury curve’s recent bear-steepening trend and a look at different measures of long-maturity Treasury valuation.

In this Special Report, we introduce two strategies that use our Central Bank Monitors for global fixed income country allocations and currency trades. We find that using the Monitors in country selection helps improve the performance of a developed markets government bond portfolio. The CBMs can also help substantially minimize the drawdowns on a standard FX carry strategy.

In this insight, we look at whether the recent data justifies a shift by the BoC, and some potential trades.

In this insight, we look at whether the recent data justifies a shift by the BoC, and some potential trades.

There is a high probability that the global economy will tip into recession in the second half of 2024. A long yen position is an excellent hedge against that risk.

In this report, we present the quarterly review of the Global Fixed Income Strategy Model Bond Portfolio. The portfolio remains positioned for slower global growth momentum over the next 6-12 months, favoring government bonds over corporate debt. The portfolio also favors government bonds in countries flirting with recession where policy rates are too high (core Europe & the UK).