Gov Sovereigns/Treasurys

In this <i>Insight</i>, we answer a few crucial questions: Do the BoC and RBA decisions have any impact on what we can expect from other major central banks next week? Are there any profitable trades that can be put on, given the recent hawkish shift by these two central banks? How should global bond investors be positioned in a fixed income portfolio?

In this <i>Insight</i>, we answer a few crucial questions: Do the BoC and RBA decisions have any impact on what we can expect from other major central banks next week? Are there any profitable trades that can be put on, given the recent hawkish shift by these two central banks? How should global bond investors be positioned in a fixed income portfolio?

A benign disinflation will support equities over the next few quarters. Stocks will fall next year as a recession begins when investors least expect it.

This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for June 2023.

The Fed is still on track for a June pause, even after May’s strong nonfarm payroll print.

In this report, we follow up on the upgrade to our US duration stance from last week with a review of our rates views and government bond allocations outside the US. We conclude that while we now find US Treasuries to be more attractive from a value perspective, even better value is available in euro area and UK government debt.

The AI craze could further lift stock prices, boost capex, and delay the onset of the next recession. Looking further out, reaping the profit windfall from AI may take longer than many investors expect.

Now that the French pension reforms have been passed, President Macron’s focus will be on the international stage. Where are the risks and opportunities for French assets created by this pivot?