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Gov Sovereigns/Treasurys

Global Fixed Income Q3 Review & Outlook: Monetary Policy In The Driver’s Seat

Despite concerns about fiscal sustainability, a rise in term premia, and attacks on central bank independence, monetary policy remains the primary driver of bond markets. In our Q3 Review & Outlook, we update our views and identify opportunities in government bonds, short-term interest rate futures, global yield curves, inflation-linked bonds, and credit.

Global Fixed Income Strategy by Robert Timper
Flying Blind

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for October 2025.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Thoughts On The Neutral Rate And Policy Restrictiveness
Post-FOMC speeches reveal divisions across the committee, reinforcing long duration as policy remains mildly restrictive. The September dots showed a split, with half of participants expecting at most one 25 bps cut and the rest seeing at least two. Gov.…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Safe Haven Scorecards: Is There An Alternative To US Treasuries?

The US Treasury safe haven status is being seriously questioned. We assess whether US Treasuries are still unrivaled or which bond markets and assets are gaining ground. We do so by breaking down which global bond markets are best positioned to absorb risk-off flows in a shifting macro regime.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Robert Timper
CE3 Bonds: A Play On Europe’s Deflationary Shock
Our Emerging Markets strategists recommend investors go long CE3 domestic bonds, as a deflationary shock in core Europe drives Bund yields and CE3 rates lower. USD-based should go unhedged, while Euro-based investors should hedge currency risk, as CE3…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
The EM Bond Rally Isn’t Exhausted Yet

USD-denominated Emerging Market bonds have been outperforming US corporates for the past year. We don’t think the rally is exhausted yet.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Resilient NAB Survey Undercuts Dovish RBA Pricing
Australia’s NAB survey shows underlying resilience, reinforcing our underweight on ACGBs and the case for AUD flatteners vs. CAD steepeners. The August survey was mixed, with current conditions improving to 7 from 5, while business confidence softened to 4…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Gold Breakout Aligns With Yield Curve Steepening
Gold and steepeners remain core trades, supported by structural shifts in markets and policy. Gold broke out of the consolidation range it had been in since April, supported by central-bank buying and heightened policy uncertainty. Moreover, the…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Bond Market Responds To Weak Employment Data

The August employment report showed a modest increase in labor market slack, enough to cement a 25-basis-point rate cut this month.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Turkey Disinflation Supports Bullish Case For 2-Year Bonds
Turkey’s disinflation trend remains intact, supporting a bullish case for short-term bonds. Headline inflation eased to 33% y/y in August from 33.5% in July. Our Emerging Markets strategists expect further slowing as monetary and fiscal policy stay tight.…
Daily Insights by Rajeeb Pramanik, Armen Hamazaspyan

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