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Government

China, Taiwan, And Recent Lessons From Geopolitics
Special Report

China removed checks and balances in its political system to deal with a very dangerous economic transition. The transition is going badly, yet investors cannot rely on checks and balances to correct or prevent policy mistakes. The Taiwanese election is a looming bellwether.

Geopolitical Strategy, Global Investment Strategy by Matt Gertken
Is It Time To Buy Argentinian Sovereign Bonds?
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, while it may be tempting to bottom fish, the team advises that investors maintain a cautious stance on Argentinian sovereign credit. Even though the election of a right-wing candidate in the…
Daily Insights
Rising Economy, Falling Approval
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, the Democratic Party is favored to win the 2024 election as long as it is not discredited by a major shock. But recession odds are not low. The US economy has enjoyed a lot of positive surprises…
Daily Insights
In Defense Of The Yuan
Chinese authorities have recently ratcheted up support for the currency. The PBoC continues to set its daily yuan fixing at a stronger-than-expected rate, with the yuan midpoint (a reference for trading that caps the range between +/-2%) at 7.1992 per dollar…
Daily Insights
On China's Modest LPR Cut
Chinese banks surprised markets with a more modest-than-anticipated rate cut on Monday. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was reduced by 10 basis points to 3.45% – slightly above expectations of a bigger cut to 3.40%. Moreover, the five-year LPR – which is…
Daily Insights
Is The 2024 Election Relevant To Investors?
Special Report

The next six-to-nine months hold a crucial test of whether the equity market will ratify the soft landing and the Biden administration or not. If so, then markets will rally on policy continuity and likely gridlock. If not, then markets will struggle until the election is over and again in 2025-26.

Geopolitical Strategy, US Equity Strategy by Matt Gertken
China: Easing Monetary Conditions Have Not Led To Credit Growth Revival
Despite the underwhelming economic recovery, Chinese authorities remain reluctant to open wide stimulus taps as much as they have in past economic downturns. This is corroborated by the PBoC’s marginal interest rate cut last Tuesday. The one-year medium-term…
Daily Insights
US Election Market Impacts
The chief question of the 2024 election is whether US anti-establishment or populist politics is a viable electoral strategy, according to BCA’s US Political Strategy. That will have domestic and global effects not only in 2024-28 but potentially…
Daily Insights
China: Diagnosing Malaise
Before doctors prescribe treatments to a patient, they first make a diagnosis. The success of the treatment is contingent upon the accuracy of the diagnosis. The same is true for a country’s economy. Many commentators use notions like debt deflation,…
Daily Insights
Is The 2024 Election Relevant To Investors?
Special Report

The next six-to-nine months hold a crucial test of whether the equity market will ratify the soft landing and the Biden administration or not. If so, then markets will rally on policy continuity and likely gridlock. If not, then markets will struggle until the election is over and again in 2025-26.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity See more Topics Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics