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Inflation/Deflation

On Breakouts And Breakdowns

In this report, we dissect which markets have broken out and which ones have not, and reflect what this entails for our global macro view. Also, we analyze how the S&P 500 has been taking its cues from a change in the inflation trend. Yet, inflation dynamics are complex, and a falling inflation rate does not mean that the inflation menace has been eliminated.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
US Retail Sales Continue To Expand In June
US retail sales delivered a mixed signal on Tuesday. On the one hand, overall retail sales growth decelerated from 0.5% m/m to 0.2% m/m in June– disappointing expectations of 0.5% m/m. Spending on retail sales excluding the volatile auto and gas retailers…
Daily Insights
Betting On A Less Hawkish BoC
Canada’s CPI release showed headline CPI inflation cooled from 3.4% y/y to 2.8% in June – below estimates calling for a less pronounced moderation to 3.0% y/y. This marks inflation’s first return to the Bank of Canada’s 1%-3% percent inflation target range…
Daily Insights
On Improving US Homebuilder Confidence
Results of the NAHB survey shows US homebuilder sentiment inched further above 50 to a 13-month high of 56 in July. Its ongoing rise above 50 indicates that net sentiment is becoming increasingly favorable. That said, homebuilders pared back some optimism…
Daily Insights
The Euro And Global Growth
After US inflation slowed down markedly, EUR/USD broke out to 1.12, which constitutes a 16-month high. The euro is benefiting from the market expectation that the Fed will soon be done with its hikes while the ECB’s monetary tightening campaign remains more…
Daily Insights
How Large Can The Eurozone / US Divergence Get?

In recent months, the European and US economies have greatly diverged, with the Euro Area massively disappointing while the US has surprised to the upside. Can this dichotomy continue or is it Europe’s turn to shine?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
The Signal From Dr. Copper
Copper rallied to a two-month high by the end of last week. Importantly, this move did not occur in isolation. It coincides with greater optimism about the prospects of a soft landing. Indeed, the US economic surprise index is solidly in positive territory…
Daily Insights
Gauging The Trajectory Of The Economy (And The Stock Market)

Stocks fare best when there is plenty of slack in the economy and growth is strong and getting stronger. The good news is that the economic growth score for the US in our MacroQuant model is above its historic average. The bad news is that US economy is operating with little slack and sentiment is getting complacent. We recommend that investors maintain a modest overweight to equities for the time being but look to get more defensive later this year or in early 2024.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Beige Book Monitor Signals Slight Improvement In US Activity
The Fed’s latest Beige Book reveals that economic activity rose slightly in recent weeks. The results are based on surveys and interviews conducted across 12 districts through June 30. In particular, two of the districts experienced “slight and modest…
Daily Insights
Brazil: A Bull Market Or A Rollercoaster?

In this report, we explore Brazil’s inflation and monetary policy outlook, the Lula administration’s back-and-forth between pragmatism and populism, and how these factors will affect Brazilian financial markets going forward. All in all, we believe Brazilian risk assets will be in a trading range relative to their EM peers in the next 12 months.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Juan Egana, Arthur Budaghyan

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics