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Inflation/Deflation

The Bond Market Braces For A Slowdown

This morning’s employment report showed solid job growth, but recent consumer spending indicators are more concerning. The risk of recession starting within the next few months has increased. We suggest some important indicators for investors to track in the current environment.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Retail Real Estate: Alive, Well, And Unnoticed
Our Private Markets & Alternatives strategists assessed retail real estate opportunities.  Retail Real Estate is a contrarian opportunity, with investor sentiment at rock-bottom levels despite shifting consumption patterns. Click-and-collect,…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
ECB: Nearing Neutral With A Complex Outlook
The ECB cut 25 bps as expected, bringing the deposit facility rate to 2.5%. President Lagarde reiterated the disinflationary process is “well on track” and described the policy stance as “meaningfully less restrictive”, signalling the ECB is nearing…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Germany Will Force The ECB’s Hand, Eventually

The ECB cut rates as expected, but rising yields and a stronger euro are tightening financial conditions just as fiscal policy shifts the macro landscape. With more rate cuts ahead and market positioning stretched, we outline the key risks, investment opportunities, and our updated call on the ECB’s terminal rate. Read our full report for actionable insights.

European Investment Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Recession Risk Is Back

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for March 2025.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Euro Area: Services Disinflation Remains Under Way
February flash inflation for the Eurozone was slightly hotter than expected but nonetheless declined, with both headline and core inflation falling 0.1% to 2.4% y/y and 2.6%, respectively. Services inflation also declined to 3.7% from 3.9%. While Europe…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Tokyo CPI Remains Hot
The February Tokyo CPI print came in slightly cooler than expected. Headline inflation moderated to 2.9% y/y from 3.4%, while “core core” was steady at 1.9%. The Tokyo CPI gives an advance reading on national price pressures, and the data suggests…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
US Consumer Spending Slows Amid Higher Tariff Risk
January PCE inflation was in line with expectations, with headline and core inflation rising 0.3% m/m, leaving the respective annual growth rates at 2.5% and 2.6%, near the Fed’s projection for 2025. Consumer spending missed expectations and was weak in both…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
The Tariff Shock And The Fed’s Response

Core PCE inflation was tame this morning, but with large tariffs looming we anticipate loftier inflation readings in the months ahead.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
European Wages Cool
Fourth-quarter European negotiated wages growth cooled to 4.1% y/y, down from the 5.4% peak seen in Q3. The cooling is in line with the ECB’s Wage Tracker showing wage growth decelerating to 1.3% by the end of the year. Labor demand is easing in Europe,…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier

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