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Inflation/Deflation

Lacking Conviction

Global risk assets are engulfed in a wave of euphoria, which is pulling Europe higher along the way. However, risks still abound. How should investors adjust their allocation to Europe under these highly uncertain conditions?
 

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
BoJ Hikes, Signals More To Come
The Bank of Japan hiked rates by 25 bps as expected to 0.50%, or a 17-year high. The BoJ is currently the only G10 central bank in a hiking cycle, as the hot labor market creates sustained domestic price pressures.  Additionally, the BoJ signaled a…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Still On The Tightrope
Our Global Investment strategists believe the US economy is in a more precarious position than investors realize. A slowdown in growth could raise unemployment, while stronger activity may heighten inflation worries. The economic momentum seen in late…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
UK: Cooling Employment Will Contain Inflation
November/December UK employment data was mixed. The November unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 4.4%, in line with expectations. Payrolled employees decreased faster than expected at a 47k pace in December, surpassing the 35k contraction in November. However,…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
US Rates: More On Value And Timing
Our US Bond Strategy team put out a Strategy Insight outlining the value they see in the Treasury market.  The recent rise in Treasury yields reflects increased inflation uncertainty and a higher term premium. Treasury yields now offer an attractive…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Canada: Business Expectations Rebound, Trade Uncertainty Looms
The Q4 2024 Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey showed improving business optimism, with the overall index ticking up to -1.2, and a net 31% of surveyed businesses expecting higher sales, compared to 13% in Q3. Improved expectations reflect looser…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
China: Moderate Growth Will Not Last
Chinese activity was decent in December, with GDP growth topping the 5% target for 2024. Industrial production growth ticked up to 6.2% y/y from 5.4% in November. Retail sales also picked up, increasing to 3.7% from 3.0% a month prior. New and used home…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Weekly Screeners: Trumpflation, Low-Beta US Stocks, Singapore Setback

This week, our screeners cover views on Trump 2.0, defensive US equity sectors, and a pullback in Singapore equities. Our first screener aims to hedge longer term inflation risks that Trump 2.0 will likely generate, targeting US equities that are highly correlated with future inflation expectations. Our second screener identifies several defensive sectors that are worth consideration, in case of a tactical pullback in US equities. Lastly, we pick out Singapore stocks that are cheap and high safety, should a pullback occur in the local bourse given weakening macro and technical conditions. 

Equity Analyzer by Guy Russell
An Uninspiring Retail Sales Report
December US retail sales missed estimates, with the headline number printing at 0.4% m/m, a decline from an upwardly revised 0.8% in November. On the positive side, the control group beat estimates at 0.7%. Netting it all out, the report was uninspiring,…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Is Good News Becoming Bad News Again?
Two main market events defined 2024, highlighting how assets will react to economic data on the tactical horizon. The August 2024 selloff marked a positive shift in the stock-bond yield correlation, as higher odds of a “hard landing” were priced in, after…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier

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Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics