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Inflation/Deflation

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Not Dark Yet

Today’s report recaps last week’s webcast and elaborates on its themes, delving into the empirical evidence underpinning our conviction that asset allocators should underweight equities sparingly and fleetingly. We remain tactically neutral and cyclically bearish.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
Is The Norges Bank The Last Hawk?
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service, the Norges Bank will be one of the last central banks to cut rates. The Swiss National Bank, Bank of England, and Norges Bank all held policy meetings on Thursday. The SNB continued its dovish…
Daily Insights
Can The BoE Afford To Cut Rates In August?
In a widely expected move, the Bank of England (BoE) kept its policy rate unchanged at 5.25% in June. Although MPC members voted seven-to-two in favor of not cutting rates, a tweak in communication noting that the decision was “finely balanced”, hinted at the…
Daily Insights
UK Inflation Is Still Sticky
On the surface, UK inflation appears to be on the right track. The May CPI release came in broadly within expectations. Headline inflation eased from 2.3%y/y to 2.0%y/y – directly on the BoE’s target for the first time since July 2021. Core CPI (excluding…
Daily Insights
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The US Is Exceptional, But The World Is Not Unipolar

US assets and the US dollar should remain resilient relative to global peers over the next 12 months as policy uncertainty, election risk, and geopolitical risk reach a climax. After that, investors should reassess their regional allocation.

US Political Strategy, Geopolitical Strategy, US Equity Strategy by Matt Gertken
RBA: Still Hawkish
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate at 4.35% at its policy meeting on Tuesday, in line with market expectations. Australia’s monthly measure of headline inflation came in at 3.6% in April, still considerably above the midpoint of the RBA’s 2-3%…
Daily Insights
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The Bank Of Japan Joins The Doves

In this insight, we update our thinking on the recent BoJ move in terms of positioning for the yen and JGB yields.

Foreign Exchange Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
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South Africa: After Hegemony

The new national unity government in South Africa creates a geopolitical opportunity that investors should not bet against in the short term. A broad-based rally is likely to unfold relative to other emerging markets. However, structural problems and distrust within the new coalition hold out significant risks over the long run.

Geopolitical Strategy, Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik, Matt Gertken
UK Inflation Expectations Are Still Well Anchored
The BoE had to deal with a stagflationary headache in the second half of 2023. Inflation was stickier and growth was weaker in the UK than in many of its DM peers. This trend turned around earlier this year with a late-cycle growth reacceleration. The UK…
Daily Insights
BoJ Exercises Caution
In a largely expected move, the Bank of Japan kept its policy rate unchanged at 0-0.1% in June. It maintained the pace of bond buying at JPY 6tr per month but signaled it would lay out a plan to reduce its balance sheet next month, without offering any…
Daily Insights

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