Inflation

The European Central Bank has achieved a soft landing. Inflation is back to target, with well-anchored inflation expectations. The unemployment rate is historically low, and real economic growth is stable, albeit weak. Given that little to no additional easing will come from the ECB, investors should underweight government bonds relative to equities.

Inflation expectations in the US remain reasonably well anchored and there are few signs of a brewing wage-price spiral. Thus, the near-term risks to growth outweigh the risks of higher inflation. Looking beyond the next year or two, however, we are worried about stagflation.

We see two risks that could spoil the rally in US risk assets: (1) a tariff-driven stagflation, and (2) a US Treasury tantrum. Our negative view on EM risk assets is primarily driven by the outlook for global trade, which is set to shrink in Q4 this year.

This morning’s CPI report marginally tips the scales in favor of a September rate cut.

The Fed will keep rates on hold until the unemployment rate forces its hand.

Euro area and Chinese interest rates must fall much further to prevent monetary policy from becoming ultra-restrictive. But Trump’s attempts to force unwarranted rate cuts from the Fed risks a vicious backlash from the bond vigilantes.

Despite macro headwinds, the OBBBA clearly favors Industrials, Financials, and Consumer Discretionary equity sectors. A carefully constructed, factor-aware basket in these sectors is well positioned to outperform in a fiscal-driven, uncertain environment. 

We discuss the implications of this morning’s CPI report and the relative attractiveness of 2/5 Treasury curve steepeners.

We upgrade European small caps to maximum overweight and double down on our existing recommendation to go long European small caps relative to US ones.

The perfectly synchronised moves in US, Japanese, German, and UK 30-year bond yields through the past two months are odd… and irrational. These irrational moves present compelling investment opportunities.