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Japan

The TOPIX And The Yen: Don’t Confuse Correlation For Causation
Japanese stocks’ bull market has many more years to run, and it will extend to the JPY. The TOPIX’s negative correlation with the yen should thus fade, and a stronger JPY may increasingly coincide with rising Japanese equities. Investors often treat Japan as…
Daily Insights by Mathieu Savary
Laggards with Earnings Momentum, Japanese Semiconductors and US Rate-Sensitive Stocks

For this screener report, we explore opportunities in laggards with earnings momentum, Japanese semiconductors and US rate-sensitive stocks.

Equity Analyzer by Henry Tang
Questions From The Road: Swiss Edition

We spent last week meeting investors in Switzerland. This Strategy Insight revisits the most prominent topics we discussed, including repatriation fears, SNB intervention, and Dutch pension reform.

Global Fixed Income Strategy by Robert Timper
Japan: Weak Q4 GDP, But Reacceleration Signals Build
Japanese Q4 GDP disappointed, but early indicators point to a reacceleration. GDP rose 0.1% q/q (0.2% annualized) after falling 0.7% q/q in Q3. Private sector activity was weak but positive, with consumption rising 0.1% and business spending 0.2%, while…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
The Yen Carry Trade: A Ticking Time Bomb
Our EM strategists see a poor risk-reward profile for the yen carry trade, though timing its reversal remains challenging. They argue that once the yen begins to appreciate, the move is likely to prove outsized given the scale of the existing carry trade. The…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
The Yen Carry Trade: A Ticking Time Bomb

The yen carry trade will unwind this year. However, it will be triggered by a drop in “carry asset” prices and a spike in the JPY/USD, rather than by Japan’s improving interest rate differentials. Go long JPY against the USD.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan, Ziyuan Huang
Japanese Election Delivers A Strong Mandate
Japan’s election delivered a decisive mandate for PM Takaichi, reshaping domestic politics. The landslide victory, the LDP’s largest in the post-war era, secures a supermajority in the lower house and reverses losses from the 2024-25 elections. The scale of…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Japan Stimulates, Clashes With China

Ignore Japan's constitutional debate. Rearmament will accelerate anyway. Tech, defense stocks, and industrials will benefit. The threat to JGBs is real but will probably be contained.

Geopolitical Strategy by Yushu Ma
On The Yen Carry Trade
Our clients see moderate risk from the yen carry trade unwinding. Our latest weekly poll asked how concerned clients are about the yen carry trade over the next six months. A clear majority (64%) of clients saw moderate risk, with high and low risk evenly…
Daily Insights by Garry Evans
The Biggest Macro Call Of 2026-27: Save The Bond Market, Or Save The Stock Market?

The US and Japan are in the same predicament: save the bond market or save the stock market? How this predicament will be resolved is the biggest global macro call of 2026-27. Plus: a new tactical trade is to go short AUD/JPY.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi

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