Japan

In this Special Report, we present our updated Central Bank Monitors for the US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Japan. We have improved the methodology used to calculate the monitors to make them more dynamic to structural changes over time. The main message from the Monitors is consistent across all five countries. The pressure to hike rates is diminishing, suggesting that the end of tightening cycles is approaching, but it is still too soon to expect rate cuts.

In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of 2023 and beyond.

The Bank of Japan is about to get new leadership when Kazuo Ueda takes over as governor in April. Will there be a new monetary policy to go along with the new governor? We attempt to answer that question, and what that means for global bond markets and the yen, in this Special Report.

The rebound in growth is pushing up inflation. More aggressive monetary policy is likely to trigger recession over the next 12 months or so. Investors should stay defensive.

Great Power Rivalry is taking another leg up as Russia and China further align their geopolitical interests. Investors should stay long USD-CNY, favor defensives over cyclicals, and markets like North America and DM Europe that have less exposure to geopolitical risk.