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Labor Market

Rate Cuts Are Back On The Menu

While we anticipate higher inflation in June, it looks increasingly likely that the price impact from tariffs will be less aggressive and long-lasting than many feared.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
NFIB Cautious Optimism Won’t Break Equity Range
Small business confidence improved in May, but hiring intentions fell and activity remains sluggish, reinforcing our cautious equity stance. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 98.8, beating expectations. However, most of the improvement came from…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
UK: Falling Payrolls, Softer Wages Bolster Gilts’ Bull Case
UK labor market deterioration reinforces our overweight on Gilts and dovish BoE policy trades. Payrolls fell by 109k in May, an acceleration from the 55k revised decline for April (originally reported as -33k), and job vacancies continued to slide. Slower…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
The US Economy Is Holding Up... For Now

The US economy has held up better so far this year than we had expected. For the time being, investors should remain modestly underweight equities. A more aggressive underweight would be justified only once the “whites of the recession’s eyes” are visible.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Labor Market Back In Focus

For now, measures of labor market utilization (like the unemployment rate) are only gradually weakening. But we know from history that these trends have a habit of quickly accelerating in advance of recession. 

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Slowing US Labor Momentum Reinforces Defensive Positioning
The May US jobs report reinforces our defensive stance as labor momentum is slowing even if not collapsing. Payrolls rose 139k, beating estimates, but decelerating from a downwardly revised 147k. Two-month revisions cut 95k jobs, again signaling that initial…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
No Recession, No Fragility, But A Lingering Doubt About A Bubble

I am a structural disbeliever in the US superstar stocks because these winners of the previous technology, Web 2.0, are unlikely all to be the winners of the latest technology, AI. But I would suspend my disbelief if the Magnificent-7 index reaches a new high and the bursting AI-bubble configuration is broken. Plus, a new recommendation is to overweight Global Healthcare (IXJ).

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
ISM Services: Stagflation Risk
The May ISM Services PMI sent a stagflationary signal, reinforcing the case for defensive positioning. The headline index slipped into contraction at 49.9 from 51.6 in April, missing expectations. New orders collapsed to 46.4 from 52.3, while employment edged…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Wait For May Employment Data

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for June 2025.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
JOLTS Rebound Unlikely to Last
The April JOLTS report was mixed, but the underlying trend still points to a weakening labor market and reinforces our overweight in government bonds. Job openings rose to 7.5m from 7.2m, and hiring picked up, though gains were concentrated in non-cyclical…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier

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Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics