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Labor Market

Housing Is The Business Cycle… And Housing Is Weakening
US housing starts and building permits eased below expectations in September. Permits, a proxy for future construction, dropped 2.9% after rising 4.6% in August. New construction fell 0.5% after rising 7.8% a month prior. These disappointing numbers extend…
Daily Insights
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The ECB Dangerous Game

Yesterday, the ECB solidified its recent dovish tilt in response to weaker growth and decreasing inflationary pressures. It is now set to cut rates 25bps each meeting. How low will the ECB deposit rate ultimately go and what does this imply for yields and the euro?

European Investment Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Staying The Course On Our Bearish Views
Recent economic data surprises drove equities and bond yields higher, putting our US Investment Strategy team’s bearish views to the test. They recently published a piece assessing their views considering these bullish developments. First, there is more to…
Daily Insights
UK Assets: Mark Your Calendar
The UK August employment report was in line with recent data showing an economy humming at a decent pace. The unemployment rate decreased 0.1pp to 4% after peaking at 4.4% before the summer. The BoE will look kindly to the continued deceleration in wage…
Daily Insights
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Travelogue: Europe At A Crossroad

This week, we cover the main questions we fielded during our latest client trip in Europe. Among the many topics broached are Europe’s recession odds, the impact of China’s stimulus, and the outlook for European markets.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
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Has The US Labor Market Turned The Corner?

It is too early to say that the US labor market has turned the corner. We assign a 60% chance that the US will enter a recession over the next 12 months, with the downturn likely to begin in the first half of 2025. Accordingly, investors should underweight equities.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
US Aggregate Data Hint At Accelerating Activity
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) – a summary statistic of US economic data releases – increased to 0.12 from -0.42, suggesting that the US economy improved in August. Details, however, do not point to a broad-based acceleration since…
Daily Insights
RBNZ Steps Up Pace Of Easing After August’s Surprise Cut
At its October meeting, the Reserve Bank Of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut the Official Cash Rate by 50 bps to 4.75%. The decision was not accompanied by an updated economic forecast or press conference and the latest forecast in August expected inflation to fall to…
Daily Insights
Record-High Uncertainty Constrains Small Business Hiring and Capex
The NFIB Small Business Optimism index was mostly flat in September, ticking a mere 0.3 points higher to 91.5 in September, below expectations of a more meaningful improvement to 92.0. The NFIB Small Business Optimism has oscillated in a tight range since…
Daily Insights
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Peak Polarization Or Not? US Political Outlook Q4 2024

The US election underscores three long-term trends of Generational Change, Peak Polarization, and Limited Big Government. Investors should expect more volatility around the election and should assess the results before adding more risk. While we predicted the October surprise from the Middle East, more surprises are coming before the final vote is cast.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics