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Labor Market

The Eurozone’s Bright Spots
  The Eurozone’s Bright Spots …
Daily Insights
Easier Financial Conditions Won’t Prevent Labor Demand Deterioration
US financial conditions have become noticeably easier since August. The Fed has embarked on its easing cycle with a bang, sending equities higher and spreads lower, while the trade-weighted dollar gave back more than half of its year-to-date gains. The…
Daily Insights
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Fourth Quarter 2024 Strategy Outlook: Soft Landing Or Quicksand?

After resisting the consensus narrative in 2022 that a US recession was imminent, and then predicting an immaculate disinflation for 2023, the Global Investment Strategy team has joined the dark side and is now expecting a recession to start in the US within the next six months. Accordingly, we recommend that investors underweight stocks and overweight government bonds.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Consumer Income And Spending Consistent With Broad Cooling
US nominal personal income growth decelerated to a 0.2% pace in August, from 0.3% in July, missing expectations that it would accelerate. Nominal personal spending also disappointed, growing at a slower 0.2% pace from 0.5%. In real terms, spending barely…
Daily Insights
Downtrend In Savings Rate Gets Revised Away
Annual BEA data revisions resulted in a significant upward revision in GDP growth since Q2 2020, led by stronger consumption growth and more robust real disposable income growth than previously believed. Revisions also show that the savings rate has been…
Daily Insights
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The Critical Hour: Geopolitical Outlook, Q4 2024

Markets are rallying on Fed rate cuts and China stimulus but there will also be October surprises ahead of the US election, which Trump could still win. Russia’s conflict with the West is escalating and the Middle East is destabilizing further. Investors should favor US bonds but they should add some risk in emerging markets in response to China’s policy turn.

Geopolitical Strategy by Yushu Ma, Max Malakhveitchouk, Matt Gertken, Junfei Guo, Jesse Anak Kuri
Lower Mortgage Rates Spur Refinancing Surge
The conventional 30-year mortgage rate eased further to 6.2% from above 7% back in the spring, spurring a 20.3% surge in refinancing activity last week. Mortgage applications rose 11.0%, marking a fifth consecutive week of increase and the Conference Board…
Daily Insights
Riksbank Eases Further, Signals Jumbo Cut
In a widely expected move, the Riksbank lowered its policy rate from 3.5% to 3.25% in September, marking its third cut this year. It embarked on its easing cycle in May, leading many other DM central banks, and has been sending increasingly dovish messages…
Daily Insights
US Consumer Confidence Falls By Most In 3 Years
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence index unexpectedly shed 6.9 points to 98.7 in September. Both the Present Situation and Expectations components declined, by 10.3 and 4.6 points respectively. The decline in morale in September was broad-based across…
Daily Insights
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Will Europe Do Whatever It Takes?

The Draghi report highlights sensible reforms that would address many of Europe’s productivity shortcomings. Whether European capitals heed Mario Draghi’s advices remains to be seen.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary

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Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics