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Labor Market

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Yes, There Are Imbalances In The US Economy

The US suffers from enough imbalances to produce a mild recession. Unfortunately, such a recession could lead to a significant bear market in stocks, just as it did during the very mild 2001 recession.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
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ECB: One More Cut In December Before A Waterfall In 2025

The ECB will cut rates once more this year; however, markets underprice how far it will ease next year.

European Investment Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Fade The Rosier Picture From Unemployment Claims
Continued deterioration in labor demand underpins our expectation for a US recession, as it will lead to slower compensation growth, hobbling consumption spending’s main driver. We also previously highlighted that the outlook for bond yields currently hinges…
Daily Insights
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A Quick Note On Claims & FOMC Preview

Some thoughts on this morning’s US claims report and a preview of next week’s FOMC meeting.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Trump Still Has A Path
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, former President Trump still has a path to come back to power, despite his disastrous performance in the debate with Vice President Kamala Harris on September 10. A cascade of shifting opinion…
Daily Insights
August Uptick In US Core CPI Doesn’t Derail Disinflation Process
US headline CPI eased from 2.9% y/y to 2.5% in August in line with consensus predictions. However, core CPI unexpectedly accelerated from 0.2% m/m to 0.3%. Aside from airfares -- a highly volatile series which is likely to reverse in coming months given…
Daily Insights
Greek Stock Rally Is Long In The Tooth
Following a 12-year-long bear market, Greek equities have returned a whopping 186% in EUR terms from their 2016 lows. The Greek macroeconomic backdrop has indeed improved. Since 2021, Greece’s nominal GDP growth has exceeded the pace of growth in…
Daily Insights
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Trump Still Has A Path

Despite the disastrous performance by former President Trump in the debate with Vice President Kamala Harris, there are still paths for him to come back to power. The economy and global instability could flare up anytime between now and election day, while quirks in the Electoral College ensure that the election will be close. The race is still competitive and policy uncertainty and volatility will be elevated.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken
US Small Business Optimism Unexpectedly Declined In August
US small business optimism unexpectedly shed 2.5 points to 91.2 in August, the largest monthly decline since 2022, retracing nearly half of the index’s advance since March. The NFIB Small Business Optimism has oscillated in a tight range since 2022 but…
Daily Insights
UK Wage Growth Decelerates
The BoE embarked on its easing cycle in August, delivering its first 25 bps rate cut. The decision was nowhere near unanimous, with 5 MPCs out of 9 voting in favor of lowering policy rates. Indeed, while headline inflation is sitting right on the central…
Daily Insights

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Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics