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Labor Market

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The Paradox Of A Weak NOK

In this report, we gauge the reasons behind the persistently weak Norwegian krone, despite what appears to be benign domestic economic conditions.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor, Artem Sakhbiev
Junk Bonds’ Outperformance Is Unsustainable
Consistent with the risk-on environment that has dominated markets so far this year, high yield bonds have returned 4.9% YTD on a total return basis, outperforming both Treasuries (2.9%) and investment grade (3.1%). Nevertheless, our US Bond strategists…
Daily Insights
Labor Market Trumps Inflation Right Now (For Bond Yields)
US producer prices rose by a softer-than-expected 0.1% m/m in July, from 0.2% in June. The core measure remained unchanged, the tamest reading in four months. Notably, the index for final demand services fell 0.2% m/m. Our US Bond strategists have…
Daily Insights
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China's Signals Amid The US Election

China missed the chance to change course on economic policy and now it faces rising social instability and western protectionism. This policy approach implies it is not afraid of escalating strategic conflicts in East Asia. Investors should continue to underweight Greater Chinese assets. Any US-China détente will come later rather than sooner.

Geopolitical Strategy by Yushu Ma, Matt Gertken
The Sahm Rule Is Not A Leading Indicator For The Economy
Market and economic observers have devoted a lot of attention to the Sahm Rule following July’s employment report, and whether or not it has been triggered. BCA’s analysis has highlighted that the overall direction of the labor market is far more important…
Daily Insights
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One-Two Punch

Over the past few weeks, global equities have been hit by rising scepticism over the bullish AI narrative and increasing concerns over global growth. Stocks should stabilize in the near term, but the medium-term direction is to the downside. We expect the S&P 500 to drop to 3750 in 2025 and the 10-year Treasury yield to fall to 3%.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
ISM Services PMI At Odds With Manufacturing Counterpart
The ISM services PMI surprised positively in July. The headline index expanded 2.6 ppts to 51.4, reversing May’s fastest pace of contraction in four years. Notably, the business activity subcomponent increased 4.9 ppts to 54.5, new orders and new export…
Daily Insights
Treasury Curve: Own 2 -Year/10-Year Curve Steepeners
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, Friday’s employment report caused financial markets to price-in some recession risk for the first time in months. The Treasury curve bull-steepened in July, a move that accelerated after Friday’s negative…
Daily Insights
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Tracking Labor Market Momentum

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for August 2024.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift, Robert Timper
Can Higher Productivity Prolong The Expansion?
We have previously highlighted that an upside surprise in China’s fiscal stimulus as well as an AI-triggered jump in US productivity could potentially prolong the expansion, and constitute two key risks to our recession view. Recently announced government…
Daily Insights

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Manufacturing Productivity See more Topics Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics