Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

Labor Market

Smaller LEI Contraction Doesn't Eliminate US Recession Risk
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.2% in June from May, marking the smallest decrease in the past three months. Year-over-year, the US LEI remained negative but less so compared to prior months, prompting The…
Daily Insights
f_image_20240718_173630.PNG
Geopolitics In Q3 2024

Investors should overweight US assets and de-risk their portfolios in anticipation of a major increase in policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk surrounding the US election and its global ramifications.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken
F_IMAGE_20240718_114248.PNG
It’s Bear-zin Now: A Q&A

Don't buy the dip. The equity bull market is over. The US will enter a recession in late 2024 or in early 2025.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
A Warning Sign From US Jobless Claims
US initial unemployment insurance claims jumped this week and are now running above levels seen at this time of year in 2023, 2019 and 2018. We choose 2023, 2019 and 2018 as our benchmarks because the unemployment rate ran consistently below 4% in those…
Daily Insights
The Beige Book Reinforces That US Activity Is Decelerating
The latest iteration of the Fed’s Beige Book, a compilation of qualitative input sourced from business and other organizational contacts in each of its twelve Districts, was released Wednesday afternoon. The Beige Book precedes FOMC meetings by two weeks…
Daily Insights
F_IMAGE_20240712_160924.PNG
How Far Will European Earnings Fall?

The real threat to European equities is growth, not political risk. How low will Eurozone earnings fall during the coming recession and how much will equities decline in response?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
F_IMAGE_20240715_162115.PNG
US Election: Don’t Overrate Personalities

The cyclical economy is slowing today. Republicans are now more likely to win a full sweep, crack down on immigration and trade, and at least modestly stimulate the economy. Uncertainty and volatility will rise.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken
F_IMAGE_20240711_140349.PNG
It's Time To Cut

In light of last week’s employment report and this morning’s CPI, it’s time for the Federal Reserve to cut rates.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
NFIB Upside Surprise No Cause For Celebration
The NFIB Small Business Optimism (SBO) index climbed from 90.5 to 91.5 in June, the highest print this year, topping consensus expectations of a softening to 90.2. On the surface, this appears to be good news. Indeed, small businesses are particularly…
Daily Insights
Japan: A Virtuous Wage-Price Cycle?
Japanese wage growth fell below expectations in May, expanding by 1.9% y/y versus consensus estimates calling for a 2.1% y/y increase. Although this marks an acceleration from April’s 1.6% y/y, that figure was revised down meaningfully from 2.1% y/y.…
Daily Insights

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Manufacturing Productivity See more Topics Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics