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Labor Market

Another Recession Signal Flashes Red
The 3-month moving average of the unemployment rate has been a reliable US recession indicator. Indeed, there has never been a case in the post-war era when it has increased by more than a third of a percentage point from its cycle low without a recession…
Daily Insights
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Core Inflation Is Back On Track

Our updated views on Treasury yields and Fed policy following this morning’s CPI report.

US Bond Strategy
NFIB Survey Points To Softening Demand
On the surface, the Tuesday release of the NFIB Small Business Survey indicated resilience among small businesses. The headline index appreciated to 89.7 from 88.5, upending expectations of a moderation to 88.2.  However, the marginal improvement has not…
Daily Insights
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India: Peaking Politics, Peaking Markets (For Now)

Modi and the BJP are at or near the peak of their political dominance, and their third term will be challenging as they must deal with harder reforms amidst a slowing domestic and global economic environment. In the long run, however, we remain constructive on India’s prospects, as its geopolitical and economic positioning are favorable and improving.

Geopolitical Strategy by Jesse Anak Kuri
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Biding Our Time

We marked the first X on our Equity Downgrade Checklist and the latest JOLTS, Employment Situation and SLOOS releases brought us closer to ticking some others. We remain tactically neutral on equities but expect that we will underweight them as excess savings are further depleted, leading labor market indicators continue to soften and consumer credit performance continues to fray.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
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Bunds In A Bind

German Bunds have cheapened considerably, and the ECB is about to start cutting rates. Does this combination guarantee immediate profits from buying these bonds?

European Investment Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Canadian Employment Growth Picks Up, But Won’t Prevent BoC Easing
The Canadian economy added 90.4 thousand jobs in April, up from a new loss of 2.2 thousand jobs in March. The April reading beat expectations of a more moderate increase of 20 thousand. The services sector entirely explains April’s employment growth; services…
Daily Insights
A Jobs Recession Without An Economic Recession?
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, it is possible that there will be a jobs recession without an economic recession in the US, as happened in 2001. The Fed is “trying to cool demand and work with what’s happening on the supply side”. So how…
Daily Insights
US Jobless Claims Surprise To The Upside
US initial jobless claims increased from 209 thousand last week to 231 thousand, surpassing expectations of 212 thousand. Moreover, continuing claims also surprised to the upside, increasing from 1.768 million to 1.785 million. Nearly half of the rise in…
Daily Insights
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Bank Of England Inches Toward Rate Cuts

An update to our views on UK rates and currency following today’s Bank of England meeting.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Ryan Swift, Chester Ntonifor

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Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics