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Labor Market

Fourth Quarter 2025 Strategy Outlook: Still On The Tightrope

In this Q4 Strategy Outlook, we discuss where we stand on our recession call, the outlook for stocks and bonds in various scenarios, why investors are misunderstanding the impact of AI on corporate profits, whether the US dollar has entered a structural downtrend, our perspective on the yen, gold and other commodities, and much more.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
RBNZ Delivers Outsized Cut to Spur a Weakening Economy
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut the policy rate by 50 basis points to 2.5% and signaled further easing ahead, supporting an overweight stance in New Zealand government bonds and underweight in the NZD.The larger-than-expected move followed the 0.9%…
Daily Insights by Artem Sakhbiev
Flying Blind

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for October 2025.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Shutdown Halts Jobs Data, Alternatives Show A Weak September
With the government shutdown delaying jobs data, alternative indicators point to a marginally weaker US labor market in September. The absence of the monthly employment report and weekly initial claims leaves us reliant on other sources. The September…
Daily Insights
ADP Confirms Slowing Employment Growth
The September ADP report contracted by 32k jobs, missing expectations and extending the trend of weakening employment. August was revised lower to a 3k contraction, marking two consecutive months of decline after also contracting in June. The report was noisy…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Quarterly TAA: Automating America

Big Tech and the Trump administration are engineering an industrial boom that favors American hardware over American workers. Economic growth will be robust in the US but the labor market will stay relatively sluggish. Adopt an overweight stance on both equities and fixed income and underweight on cash. Upgrade Canadian equities and downgrade the UK. Upgrade Industrials and downgrade Consumer Staples. Upgrade EM Debt. Downgrade Private Credit.

Global Asset Allocation by Juan Manuel Correa
RBA Holds at 3.6%, Signals Caution On Higher Inflation
The RBA held rates at 3.6% as expected, maintaining caution as inflation could prove stronger than expected. Policy remains slightly restrictive, and at most one additional cut is on the table as the central bank has achieved a soft landing. While the RBA has…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
JOLTS Data Confirm Loosening Labor Market
August JOLTS data confirm a loosening labor market, reinforcing a modestly defensive allocation stance. Job openings ticked up to 7.23m from 7.21m, yet gains came from non-cyclical sectors. Quits fell to 3.09m from 3.17m, pushing the quits rate down to 1.9%…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Weak Consumer Confidence Points to Softer Jobs Report
Consumer confidence fell further, reinforcing weakening labor signals and supporting a long duration stance. The September Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 94.2 from 97.8, missing estimates. Both present situation and expectations…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
US Consumption Resilient But Fragile As Savings Erode
September consumption and income data beat estimates, showing a resilient US consumer but leaving the outlook fragile. Personal spending rose 0.6% m/m, outpacing income at 0.4%, pushing the saving rate down to 4.6%, its lowest level this year. Adjusted for…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics