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Labor Market

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The Mel Rule Says A US Recession Is Already Baked In The Cake

Contrary to conventional wisdom, most leading indicators suggest that the US labor market is weakening, including our very own “Mel rule.” After being overweight stocks last year, we moved to neutral at the start of 2024, and are now putting equities on downgrade watch with the expectation of shifting them to underweight later this year.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
NFIB Confidence Deteriorates, Wages Expected Higher
The NFIB’s small business optimism index decreased by 0.9 points to 88.5 in March, missing expectations of 89.9, and reaching its lowest level since 2012. A few things stood out from the report: Labor market dynamics continue to slow. The net percent…
Daily Insights
No Recession Signal From The Labor Market
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, until labor market cracks emerge, the path of least resistance for bond yields is probably higher, but the potential near-term upside in yields is limited. The team is monitoring three indicators that…
Daily Insights
Another Blockbuster Employment Report
The 303-thousand increase in nonfarm payrolls in March came in well above consensus expectations of a moderation from 270 thousand to 214 thousand. Healthcare, the public sector and construction were the top contributors to employment growth. Moreover, the…
Daily Insights
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The US Labor Market Is Still Hot

Our reaction to this morning’s employment report and bond market moves.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Is The Labor Market Stabilizing?
The number of job openings in the US in February (8.76 million) was little changed from the downwardly revised 8.75 million in January, keeping the job openings rate stable at 5.3%. Similarly, the hiring rate was little changed at 3.7% in February, from 3.6%…
Daily Insights
ISM Shows Signs Of A Manufacturing Revival
The ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.3 in March, better than expectations of 48.4 and breaking above the 50 boom-bust line for the first time since September 2022. Notably the new orders component rebounded to 51.4, marking the second expansionary reading…
Daily Insights
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Recession Postponed

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for April 2024.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift, Robert Timper
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A Checklist For Turning Defensive

We are not yet ready to downgrade equities on a tactical basis but continue to expect we will eventually do so. We present a checklist of indicators that we are watching to determine when to de-risk.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
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Italy Is No Longer Europe’s Problem Child

Italy is no longer Europe’s problem child. Investors will be better off reassessing their views of Italian assets, which represent a buying opportunity on a structural time horizon.

European Investment Strategy by Jeremie Peloso

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