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Labor Market

RBNZ: Staying On Hold
New Zealand government bonds rallied, and the NZD was the worst performing major currency on Wednesday following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) policy announcement. Although the central bank’s decision to keep its official cash rate (OCR) unchanged…
Daily Insights
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How Returning Workers Saved The US Economy… For Now

The US ‘immaculate disinflation’ has run its course, given that labour force participation is topping out. This leaves the Fed with a dilemma. Settle for price inflation stabilising at 3 percent, and cut rates early to avoid higher unemployment. Or, not cut rates early and go the final mile to 2 percent price inflation, at the risk of higher unemployment. We discuss which way the Fed is likely to tilt, and the investment implications. Plus: China is oversold while Japan is overbought.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
US Consumer Confidence Disappoints In February
The US Conference Board’s February Consumer Confidence release surprised to the downside. The index decreased to 106.7 from a downwardly revised 110.9, disappointing expectations it would improve to 115.0. Consumers’ assessment of both the present situation…
Daily Insights
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A Checklist For Extending Duration In The US Bond Market

The first in a series of Strategy Insights where we present a checklist for extending duration in each major government bond market. This first entry focuses on the US.

US Bond Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Ryan Swift
Wage Slowdown Is A Positive Development For The ECB
The messaging from the minutes of the ECB’s January meeting was similar to the Fed. Although Governing Council members noted that “for the first time in many meetings, the risks to reaching the inflation target were seen as broadly balanced or at least…
Daily Insights
Canadian Inflation Continues To Cool
Canada’s January CPI release shows price pressures cooling last month. Headline CPI eased to 2.9%y/y from 3.4%y/y in December, below expectations of 3.3%y/y. Furthermore, month-over-month inflation fell for the first time since May 2020. Headline CPI has…
Daily Insights
US LEI Continues To Contract
The US Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell by 0.4% m/m in January, following a 0.1% m/m drop in December – disappointing expectations of a milder decline. This marks the 23rd consecutive monthly decrease and has pushed down the index to its…
Daily Insights
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Elevated Cash Balances May Not Be A Big Deal

Households have ramped up their cash holdings since the end of 2019, but the absence of an empirical link between cash and consumption leads us to believe that we’ve modestly overestimated the risk of consumer-driven overheating.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
Improving UK Growth Momentum Could Delay A BoE Pivot
The UK inflation release for January came in slightly softer than anticipated. Both headline and core CPI were unchanged on year-over-year basis at 4.0% and 5.1%, respectively – below expectations of slight accelerations. The 0.6% m/m decline in the headline…
Daily Insights
Canadian Labor Force Survey Delivers A Positive Surprise
The latest Canadian data suggest that although demand is cooling down, the Canadian economy is not in freefall. The unemployment rate fell for the first time since December 2022, declining by 0.1 percentage points to 5.7%, compared to consensus…
Daily Insights

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Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics