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2024 Key Views: US Fixed Income

Our US fixed income team’s key investment views for 2024.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
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Strategy Outlook – 2024 Key Views: Here Comes The Kink

Global Investment Strategy predicted the surge of inflation in 2021/22 and the immaculate disinflation of 2023. Now their unique framework is predicting a recession in the second half of 2024.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
US Jobs Data Deliver A Positive Surprise
The US employment report delivered a positive surprise on Friday. Nonfarm payroll growth accelerated from 150 thousand to 199 thousand in November, beating expectations of 185 thousand. Importantly, the favorable result was corroborated by the unemployment…
Daily Insights
UK Households See Inflation Easing Over Near Term, Still Skeptical Over Longer Term
The latest Bank of England/Ipsos quarterly Inflation Attitudes Survey shows the public revised down its near-term inflation outlook. Respondents now believe inflation will fall to 3.3% in the year ahead – down from 3.6% in the August survey and the lowest…
Daily Insights
Receding Inflation Boosts US Household Sentiment
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Survey sent an optimistic signal about the attitude of the US consumer on Friday, handily beating consensus estimates across the board. The preliminary headline index came in at 69.4, up from 62.0 in November, surprising…
Daily Insights
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Key Views: US Politics In 2024

Democrats are favored to win the election until recession materializes. But recession risks are high. Investors should adopt a defensive and conservative strategy in 2024 amid extreme US policy uncertainty.

US Political Strategy by Yushu Ma, Max Malakhveitchouk, Matt Gertken, Junfei Guo, Jesse Anak Kuri
The US Jobs Report, And What Will Trigger The Joshi Rule Recession Indicator
The ‘Joshi rule’ real-time recession indicator signals the start of a US recession when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate of ‘job losers not on temporary layoff’ rises by 0.20 percent from its low during the previous 12 months. The…
Daily Insights
October JOLTS Supports The Soft Landing Thesis
The number of US job openings fell sharply in October according to the JOLTS survey, from 9.4 million to 8.7 million. At 8.7 million, job openings are still above the 7.1 million average seen in the two years prior to the pandemic. Viewed in isolation, this…
Daily Insights
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2024 Key Views: Suspended Animation

We enter 2024 as we were across the last four months of 2023, tactically equal weight across the board until the S&P 500 rally is complete and we gain a better entry point for underweighting equities and overweighting fixed income.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
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Sketching Out A Near-Term Trading Range For Bond Yields

Treasury yields will sketch out a range between now and Q1 2024, with the upside determined by inflation and the downside determined by labor markets.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Manufacturing Productivity See more Topics Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics