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Labor Market

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An Investors' Guide To The 2023 Dutch Snap Election

The Netherlands has a healthier and more stable economy and demography than its European peers. Investors should stay overweight developed European equities, including Dutch equities, relative to emerging European equities.

Geopolitical Strategy by Max Malakhveitchouk, Matt Gertken
US Policy Is Restrictive, But Inflation Expectations Are Still High
The preliminary release for the University of Michigan’s Consumer Survey sent a pessimistic signal about consumer sentiment on Friday. The headline index fell from 63.8 to 60.4 in November, below expectations of a marginal decrease to 63.7. Declines in both…
Daily Insights
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Signs Of Cracks In DM Labor Markets

Labor markets are softening in most developed economies, as is usually the case in the lead-up to recessions. Our base case is that the global recession will begin in the second half of 2024, but we will be monitoring our MacroQuant model on a daily basis for confirmation.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Job Switchers Are Leading The Deceleration In Wage Growth
After surging in H2 2021/H1 2022, the Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker has been on a general downtrend for over a year. The latest reading of 5.2% in October – albeit unchanged from September – is considerably below the peak of 6.7% just over a year ago.…
Daily Insights
Supply- And Demand-Driven Inflation: Elevated But Easing
The US disinflationary trend remains intact. The core PCE deflator continued its downtrend in September, falling to 3.7% y/y from a peak of 5.6% in February 2022. Alternative measures of underlying price pressures such as the trimmed mean and median PCE…
Daily Insights
Will US Small Caps Continue To Disappoint?
US small-cap stocks have underperformed significantly this year. While the S&P 500 price index is up 14.0% year-to-date, the S&P 600 has lost 2.5%. However, this underperformance has not been a straight line down. Small caps benefited from a…
Daily Insights
A Growing Monetary Policy Divergence Between Australia & Canada
A Growing Monetary Policy Divergence Between Australia & Canada …
Daily Insights
Goldilocks?
The US Nonfarm Payroll report indicates that labor market conditions cooled in October. The 150 thousand increase in payroll employment fell below expectations of 180 thousand and marks a slowdown from the 297 thousand increase in September. Moreover, the…
Daily Insights
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Wile E. Coyote And The Twilight Zone Between Boom And Bust

We are approaching another phase transition from boom to bust. Stocks should rally into year-end, but investors should look to reduce equity exposure early next year while increasing bond exposure.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
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Did Policymakers Just Solidify The Cyclical Peak In Yields?

Our reaction to today’s FOMC meeting and the Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding Announcement.

US Bond Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Ryan Swift

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Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Manufacturing Productivity See more Topics Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics