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Labor Market

Goldilocks?
Friday’s US employment report suggests that the softening of the labor market is continuing at a steady pace. Although nonfarm payroll employment in June and July was revised down by 110 thousand, the 187 thousand increase in August came in above expectations…
Daily Insights
More Evidence For The Soft Landing

US bond investment takeaways from this week’s PCE and employment releases.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Monthly Portfolio Update: Recession Postponed – But Not Avoided

A global recession continues to be likely over the next 12 months. The impact of tighter monetary policy is slowly being felt. Government bonds look increasingly attractive as a safe haven.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
Remedying China’s Economic Malaise (Part 2)

In Part 2 of this series, we prescribe the treatment needed to produce a recovery for the ailing Chinese economy. Authorities will only panic and unleash “irrigation-style” stimulus if the unemployment rate rises sharply, or a financial crisis unravels in onshore markets. This is not yet the case.

Emerging Markets Strategy, China Investment Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
On Eurozone Inflationary Pressures
Eurozone headline inflation surprised to the upside in August, confirming the signal from the preliminary German and Spanish releases. The year-on-year gauge was unchanged at 5.3% – surprising expectations of a deceleration to 5.1%. Similarly, the 0.6%…
Daily Insights
Where Things Stand

Stocks should continue to rally in the near term, but investors should prepare to turn more defensive towards the end of the year in advance of a recession in 2024.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
US GDO Growth Accelerates In Q2
US Q2 GDP growth was revised down from 2.4% to 2.1% on a quarterly annualized basis, only slightly above Q1 growth of 2.0%. Although consumption was revised up by 0.1 percentage points to 1.7%, business spending grew at a slower pace than initially reported…
Daily Insights
The Odds Of Bull-Steepening
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service’s base case outlook calls for a modest curve steepening as wage growth and inflation fall. Odds are that the next big yield curve move will be a bull-steepening that coincides with the onset of the next recession and…
Daily Insights
Some Lessons From Jackson Hole And A Shift In Our Yield Curve Positioning

We comment on Jay Powell’s Jackson Hole speech and recommend shifting to a barbelled allocation along the Treasury curve.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
JOLTS: A Cooling US Labor Market
On Tuesday, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicated that the US labor market continues to cool. It showed job openings fell to 8.827 million in July following a downwardly revised 9.165 million in June (down from the earlier estimate of…
Daily Insights

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics