Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

Labor Market

Waddington’s Landscape, Many Worlds, And The Folly Of Economic Forecasting

Investors should think probabilistically about the economy and financial markets. In the face of non-linear effects, the range of possible outcomes can be very large. A systematic application of Bayes’ rule can help improve decision-making.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
China: Implications Of US Tech Ban
On Wednesday, President Joe Biden announced that a new ban on some US investment into China’s quantum computing, advanced chips and artificial intelligence sectors will come into force next year. This latest escalation is consistent with our Geopolitical…
Daily Insights
Inflation Risk Not Yet Extinguished From The US Economy
The US NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index increased by 0.9 points to an eight-month high of 91.9, beating expectations of a more muted 0.3-point increase. Although the level remains depressed below the 49-year average of 98, the trend is positive: the July…
Daily Insights
GBP Is At Risk Of A Pullback
According to BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income and Foreign Exchange Strategy services, the British pound is overbought in the near-term and is at risk of a pullback on easing rate expectations, but this will represent a medium-term buying opportunity. The…
Daily Insights
US Labor Market: Resilient But Cooling
Nonfarm payroll employment increased by less than anticipated in July, rising by 187 thousand versus expectations of 200 thousand. In addition, the June increase was revised down from 209 thousand to 185 thousand. Similarly, average weekly hours worked…
Daily Insights
Don't Chase Yields Higher

Some thoughts on this week’s bear-steepening of the Treasury curve and this morning’s employment report.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
What Ails China Is Not What Most Investors Think

China’s extremely high savings rate is the real culprit behind its current economic woes. The authorities have been slow to stimulate the economy, and the risks of “Japanification” have increased. For now, the fact that China is exporting deflation is not such a bad thing. However, if global recession risks were to flare up again, a lethargic Chinese economy would be a cause for concern. Chinese stocks are quite cheap but lack a clear catalyst to move higher. Favor EM markets where earnings and sales estimates have been moving up lately.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
BoE: Persistent Inflationary Pressures Starting To Crystalize
As expected, the Bank of England delivered another 25 basis point rate increase at its Thursday meeting, lifting the policy rate to 5.25%. Going forward, Bailey – not unlike his counterparts at the Fed and ECB – highlighted that the MPC will be…
Daily Insights
ADP Sends Positive Signal On US Employment
The ADP Jobs Report delivered a better-than-anticipated signal about the US labor market on Wednesday. The 324 thousand increase in private employment in July beat expectations of a 190 thousand rise and marks the second highest reading in a year following…
Daily Insights
A Seasonal Illusion Threatens Goldilocks Markets

Collapsed complexity, plus the unwinding of favourable base effects and favourable seasonal adjustments to the inflation and jobs numbers, all pose a danger to the Goldilocks market.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics