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Labor Market

July JOLTS Confirms Slowing Labor Market Momentum
US job openings fell to a 10-month low in July, underscoring continued labor market weakening. Openings declined to 7.18m from 7.36m. The decline was led by non-cyclical sectors such as education and health services, which had recently been drivers of…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Watch The Unemployment Rate

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for September 2025.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
ISM Manufacturing Suggests Fragile Recovery, Not Turnaround
August ISM Manufacturing was mixed, with stronger orders offset by weak production and employment. The headline rose to 48.7 from 48.0, missing expectations. New orders beat estimates, rising into expansion at 51.4 and lifting the New…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
The US Consumer Hasn’t Buckled Yet
July income and spending data confirmed resilient consumption and sticky inflation, however, slowing labor momentum keeps us defensive. Real personal spending increased 0.3% m/m. Personal income rose 0.4% m/m, with real income ex-transfer payments…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
September 2025

In Section I, Doug notes that a negative stance toward stocks will require a meaningful and imminent deterioration in the US macro data given the ongoing impact of AI optimism on the global equity market. In Section II, Chester reviews the outlook for stablecoins, cryptocurrencies, and central bank digital currencies.

The Bank Credit Analyst by Doug Peta, Chester Ntonifor
The Outlook For Stablecoins, Cryptocurrencies, And Central Bank Digital Currencies

In Section II, Chester reviews the outlook for stablecoins, cryptocurrencies, and central bank digital currencies.

The Bank Credit Analyst by Chester Ntonifor
The UK Economy Is Sick… Literally

A surge in UK employees on long-term sick leave or with a work limiting health condition explains stubbornly high UK wage inflation. This leaves the Bank of England and the UK government with some tough choices to make in the months ahead. Plus, a new tactical trade is short CSI 300.

 

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Consumer Confidence Weakens As Job Availability Deteriorates
Mixed consumer confidence data and weakening labor signals argue for a modestly defensive stance. The August Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index beat expectations but fell from an upwardly revised 98.7. The present situation component edged lower…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Is Fed Independence… Cooked?
Trump’s firing of Fed Governor Cook raises Fed-independence risks, reinforcing steepener trades. The announcement, aimed at expanding presidential control over the central bank, saw equities fall and bonds initially rally on the prospect of more cuts…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Was Jackson Hole The Cue Markets Needed?
The post-Liberation Day rally has broadened, reducing skepticism and strengthening the case for US outperformance versus Europe. The S&P 500’s climb to all-time highs has been unusually smooth, compressing realized volatility and pulling the VIX…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics