Labor Market
Powell’s Jackson Hole speech was misread, and points to cautious dovishness. Some commentators called it hawkish, others suggested the Fed abandoned its 2% target. Neither is accurate. Central bank communication is rarely binary; it operates across…
Powell’s final Jackson Hole speech signaled a dovish tilt, opening the door to a September cut. The Fed is under pressure to balance unemployment and inflation risks, with the FOMC split between “proactive” doves and “reactive” hawks. Recent data have not…
FOMC minutes showed broad support to hold in July, but the committee remains divided between proactive doves and reactive hawks. “Almost all members” favored leaving the funds rate unchanged, though two dissented for an immediate 25 bps cut. Doves want…
Hot July inflation does not alter the weakening UK backdrop, keeping Gilts attractive and GBP vulnerable. Headline CPI rose 0.1% m/m, lifting y/y inflation to 3.8% from 3.6%, while core ticked up to 3.8% from 3.7%. Services inflation remained sticky,…
The Riksbank held at 2.0% as core inflation remains above target, though easing pressures are building. July headline inflation had slightly cooled, but core remains above both the bank’s forecast and the 1-3% target band. Inflation drivers point to…
UK data momentum is fading, keeping Gilts attractive and GBP vulnerable. At 5.60%, 30-year Gilts trade at their highest yields since the late 1990s, reflecting persistent pressure on the long end across DMs. The Bank of England has lagged the ECB in its…
US housing data remain weak, reinforcing a fragile growth backdrop and the need for equity downside protection. July housing starts rose 5.2% m/m (annualized), but building permits fell 2.8% following a small June decline. The August NAHB Housing Market…
A smooth S&P 500 rally has crushed volatility, but stretched signals argue for buying protection. The index has climbed back to all-time highs with almost no drawdown, producing a steady decline in realized volatility. This has pushed implied…
Retail sales and consumer sentiment data point to slowing underlying momentum despite headline resilience. Retail sales rose 0.5% m/m in July, below estimates and decelerating from 0.9% in June. The control group beat estimates at 0.5% but also slowed.…
July PPI surprised sharply to the upside, but inflation pressures are likely to remain limited. Headline PPI rose 0.9% m/m (3.3% y/y) in July from 0.0% m/m (2.3% y/y) in June, while core PPI gained 0.6% m/m (2.8% y/y). PPI components feeding into PCE…