Monetary
US Core CPI inflation has decelerated considerably from its year-over-year peak of 6.6% in September 2022 to 3.4% in May and the consensus expects it remained at 3.4% in June. The year-over-year number has come down continuously, albeit fitfully, over the…
We consider the outlook for CPI inflation over the next 12 months. Our baseline forecast calls for core CPI to hit 2.40% during this timeframe and for headline CPI to fall between 1.74% and 2.49%.
The latest release of the Canadian Labour Force Survey indicated further softening of the labor market in the Great White North. The economy experienced a net loss in total employment, shedding 1,400 jobs compared to market expectations of a net creation of…
In this week's report, we review the impact of political developments, as well as incoming fundamental data, on our positioning.
Eurozone headline inflation slowed from 2.6% y/y to 2.5% in June. Germany, its largest economy, saw price pressures ease from 2.4% to 2.2%, below expectations of 2.3% (or from 2.8% to 2.5% on an EU-Harmonized basis). However, Euro Area core inflation…
The US conventional 30-year mortgage rate climbed back above 7% in late June and drove a 2.6% weekly contraction in mortgage applications. The fixed-rate home affordability index sank to a nearly four-decade low. Housing is one of the most interest-rate…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for July 2024.
The US personal income and outlays report was released on Friday. Personal income grew by 0.5% versus 0.3% the previous month, beating consensus estimates. Real personal spending growth also increased, coming in at 0.3% versus a contraction of 0.1% the…
In a recent report, BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy team recommended upgrading South African assets. The team argued that the new national unity government has an opportunity to ease the restrictive policies and implement structural reforms. The…
The University of Michigan survey of consumers was released on Friday. The sentiment measure increased from 65.6 to 68.2, beating consensus estimates of 66. Current conditions as well as expectations also increased, going from 62.5 to 65.9, and from 67.6 to…