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Monetary

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The US Consumer Is NOT In Great Shape

Global consumer spending is likely to slow over the coming quarters, culminating in a major economic downturn in late 2024 or early 2025. Investors should maintain benchmark exposure to equities for now but look to turn more defensive by the end of this summer.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Could Goods Prices Slow Disinflation?
Goods prices have been normalizing following the pandemic binge on goods spending. The May CPI release indicated that durable goods and nondurable goods prices both continued to contract. Investors and policymakers have thus turned their attention to other…
Daily Insights
Where Have All The Older Workers Gone?
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, job losers not on temporary layoff (‘bad’ unemployment) will need to rise further for the Fed to reach its 2 percent inflation target. Although prime-age participation has surged, the participation of older…
Daily Insights
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Fed Keeps September On The Table

Our reaction to this morning’s CPI report and this afternoon’s FOMC meeting.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Fed Signals One Cut This Year, Four In 2025
In a widely expected move, the Fed kept its policy rate unchanged within a 5.25%-5.5% range following its June 11-12 meeting. However, the median dots have moved higher for both 2024 and 2025. The median FOMC member now expects to cut only once this year…
Daily Insights
Super Core CPI Declines For First Time In Over 3 Years
US CPI inflation continued to ease in May. Headline CPI stagnated on a month-on-month basis (3.3% y/y) in May, down from April’s 0.3% m/m (3.4% y/y), and below expectations of a more muted rate of growth. Core CPI also slowed more than expected, rising…
Daily Insights
Compensation Jump Still Leaves Doubt For The BoJ
The Bank of Japan exited negative interest rate policy in March, but subsequent softer-than-expected CPI inflation prints have complicated its path towards tightening. The central bank is widely expected to stay put when it meets this week. Governor Kazuo…
Daily Insights
Sticky Wages Complicate the BoE's Task
The UK unemployment rate surprised to the upside in the 3-month period ending in April, ticking up to 4.4% against expectations it would remain stable at March’s originally reported 4.3%. Concurrently, wage growth remains elevated. The 3-month measure of…
Daily Insights
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EU Election: Will Policy Be Affected?

Europe did not witness a major policy reversal. Inflationary pressures are coming down, enabling the ECB to cut rates and European states to maintain soft budgets. Geopolitical challenges ensure that European parties continue to cooperate on national defense, economic security, and energy security.

Geopolitical Strategy, European Investment Strategy by Matt Gertken, Jeremie Peloso
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The First ECB Cut Of Many

The ECB is now firmly in easing mode, even if it refuses to pre-commit to a specific rate path. What does this data dependency mean for the euro and European yields?

European Investment Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Mathieu Savary

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