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Policy

Markets Are Failing The Rorschach Test

What’s going on? The market-weighted stock market is up. But the equally-weighted stock market is not up. Neither is credit. Neither are industrial metal prices. Neither is the oil price, despite two waves of OPEC output cuts. We explain the dichotomy. Plus: European basic resources stocks can rebound, but Netherlands is likely to reverse.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Falling German Factory Orders: Bad News For Eurozone Stocks
Tuesday’s German factory orders release sent a disappointing signal about industrial demand. Although the pace of decline eased from -10.9% m/m to -0.4% m/m in April, it fell below expectations of a 2.8% m/m increase. Both capital and consumer goods orders…
Daily Insights
Inflation Keeps The RBA Hawkish For Longer
The Reserve Bank of Australia surprised markets with a 25 basis point rate hike on Tuesday, bringing the Cash Rate up to 4.1%. This marks the second consecutive rate increase following a pause in April. The post-meeting statement stressed that at 7%,…
Daily Insights
US Unemployment Rate Rises, Nonfarm Payrolls Increase
On the surface, Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report delivered a strong positive surprise. Establishment survey results reveal that employment increased by 339 thousand in May – above both the upwardly revised 294 thousand gain in April as well as consensus…
Daily Insights
Will UK Equities Continue Underperforming?
In our May In Review Insight, we showed that last month, UK stocks posted the lowest z-score among all major global equity markets, underperforming their Eurozone peers. What explains this relative weakness? The chart above reveals that the performance of…
Daily Insights
Is It Time To Bet On The NOK?
In our FX strategists’ models, the Norwegian krone is one of the cheapest currencies. On its own, valuation is usually not a sufficient catalyst to unlock value in any currency. That said, there are a few signs that the Norwegian krone is approaching levels…
Daily Insights
The Best FX Trades In The Coming Months

In this short weekly report, we review some of our favorite FX trades.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
Labor Market Is Still Firm, But Soft Enough For A Pause

The Fed is still on track for a June pause, even after May’s strong nonfarm payroll print.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
The Non-US Implications Of Our Recent US Duration Upgrade

In this report, we follow up on the upgrade to our US duration stance from last week with a review of our rates views and government bond allocations outside the US. We conclude that while we now find US Treasuries to be more attractive from a value perspective, even better value is available in euro area and UK government debt.

Global Fixed Income Strategy
May In Review
Global financial markets relapsed in May. After a relatively strong start to Q2, most of the major financial assets we track generated below average returns last month. A shift in investor expectations for the path of the Fed funds rate, the resurfacing of…
Daily Insights

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