Policy

The Fed is poised to deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut this month, but a follow-up rate cut in December will depend on how the divergence between strong consumer spending and weak employment growth is resolved.

Treasury yields are generally following the pattern of past interest rate cycles, but with a larger term premium keeping the curve steeper than usual.

This week’s US Bond Strategy Special Report takes a look at the two most provocative papers presented at last month’s Jackson Hole conference.

One year in, the EU is progressing slowly in implementing Mario Draghi's recommendations to restore Europe’s competitiveness. The lack of progress is due more to the various pushbacks from European capitals and the lack of proper funding than a lack of ambition. Our overall assessment remains positive, given the EU is adopting many of the priorities from Draghi’s report. 

Median Fed unemployment rate projections are overly optimistic. The Fed will end up cutting more in 2026 than it currently anticipates.

Indonesia’s policy easing will boost domestic demand, but fuel inflation. Current account deficit will widen, and the rupiah will weaken. Stay short the rupiah and go underweight Indonesian stocks, domestic bonds, and sovereign credit in their respective EM portfolios.

High US inflation is being driven by tariffs, not domestic inflationary pressure. This argues for Fed easing and a bull-steepening of the Treasury curve.

Core Europe’s industrial sector will relapse in the coming months due to US tariffs and a strong euro. Investors can play the imminent deflationary shock by being long Central European bonds. They should, however, hedge the currency risk vis-à-vis the euro.

The August employment report showed a modest increase in labor market slack, enough to cement a 25-basis-point rate cut this month.

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for September 2025.