Recession-Hard/Soft Landing
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, it is possible that there will be a jobs recession without an economic recession in the US, as happened in 2001. The Fed is “trying to cool demand and work with what’s happening on the supply side”. So how…
In this week’s report, we defend four out-of-consensus claims. Claim #1: Underlying inflation in the US is not reaccelerating. Claim #2: The US labor market is set to weaken abruptly. Claim #3: The S&P 500 will drop to 3700 in 2025. Claim #4: Japan is not in danger of a currency crisis.
The revival in global growth momentum continued in April. The JPM Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.3, marking its third consecutive month of expansion. Details underscored solid demand conditions. Output and new orders continued to rise and new…
In a widely expected move, the Riksbank cut its policy rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday from 4% to 3.75%. The policy statement highlighted that inflation is approaching its 2% target, that leading indicators are pointing to further downside in prices and…
Health care stocks have underperformed the US broad market by over 20% since the beginning of 2023. Indeed, vaccination campaigns during the pandemic years had initially boosted health care companies’ earnings. However, this tailwind eventually faded.…
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, investors should look to the stock-to-bond ratio to time the breakout in yields. The strong positive correlation between stock and bond returns has been a consistent feature of the inflationary…
Why the US could get a jobs recession without a GDP recession, as happened in 2001, and what it means for stocks and bonds. Plus, an update on the Joshi rule.
European retail sales were stronger-than-expected in March. They grew by 0.7% y/y from an upwardly revised 0.5% contraction in February, upending expectations that they would continue to decline. Improved sales in food products were the main drivers,…
Lending standards continued to tighten for most loan categories in Q1 2024. US banks reported tightening lending standards for C&I and CRE. For real-estate-backed loans to households, lending standards tightened further for Home Equity Line of Credits…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for May 2024.