Recession-Hard/Soft Landing
Multiple major DM central banks are scheduled to decide on monetary policy this week. The US Fed will meet on Wednesday, followed by the ECB, BoE, and Norges Bank on Thursday. It comes after the BoC and RBA both opted to keep rates unchanged last week. …
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, European equities near cycle highs are vulnerable to weaker earnings. The team’s earnings model for Eurozone equities continues to point to a double-digit profit contraction over the next…
Our US fixed income team’s key investment views for 2024.
Global Investment Strategy predicted the surge of inflation in 2021/22 and the immaculate disinflation of 2023. Now their unique framework is predicting a recession in the second half of 2024.
The US employment report delivered a positive surprise on Friday. Nonfarm payroll growth accelerated from 150 thousand to 199 thousand in November, beating expectations of 185 thousand. Importantly, the favorable result was corroborated by the unemployment…
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Survey sent an optimistic signal about the attitude of the US consumer on Friday, handily beating consensus estimates across the board. The preliminary headline index came in at 69.4, up from 62.0 in November, surprising…
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, the Fed will be surprisingly dovish in 2024 but it has a poor track record of avoiding recessions once monetary policy is restrictive. The independence of the Fed is misunderstood: The Fed is…
Democrats are favored to win the election until recession materializes. But recession risks are high. Investors should adopt a defensive and conservative strategy in 2024 amid extreme US policy uncertainty.
The Japanese yen strengthened considerably on Thursday after comments by Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda caused investors to bring forward their expectation of the timing of the end of negative rates. In particular, Ueda noted that monetary policy…
The ‘Joshi rule’ real-time recession indicator signals the start of a US recession when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate of ‘job losers not on temporary layoff’ rises by 0.20 percent from its low during the previous 12 months. The…