Recession-Hard/Soft Landing

The Sentix Economic Index for the Eurozone continues to send a marginally positive signal. Its 1.8-point increase to -16.8 in December brings it to its highest level since May, albeit below expectations of a slightly more meaningful improvement to -15.6.…

In the monthly Daily Insights Survey we conducted over the past week, we asked about our readers’ outlook for the timing of the next US recession, the Fed, and concerns for the global economy in 2024. On the US economic outlook, nearly all respondents…

S&P 500 Sectors Are Churning Beneath The Surface …

According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, European corporate spreads will widen over the coming six months before an attractive buying opportunity emerges in the second half of 2024. 2024 will likely be characterized by three credit…

The Caixin manufacturing PMI delivered a positive surprise about the Chinese economy in November. The PMI unexpectedly showed manufacturing activity expanded last month, breaking above the 50 boom-bust line to a three-month high of 50.7 and beating…

Global financial markets delivered exceptional gains in November. Fixed income led in terms of abnormally large returns amid a shift in the market narrative in favor of significant Fed rate cuts in 2024. Importantly, the strong performance of US investment…

According to BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service, recession is still on track to begin in the first half of 2024. Is it the recession that never came? Certainly, the consensus thinks so. Soft landing is now the clear mainstream view. Investment…

As expected, US personal income growth moderated from an upwardly revised 0.4% to 0.2% in October. However, disposable personal income growth experienced a less pronounced slowdown from 0.4% to 0.3% -- particularly in real terms which expanded for the first…