Recession-Hard/Soft Landing
The results of the Bank of England’s latest monthly Decision Maker Panel survey reduces pressure on policymakers to tighten further. Business expectations regarding output price inflation over the coming year fell from 5.0% y/y to 4.8% y/y. Similarly, the…
The Fed’s ‘Sahm rule’ real-time recession indicator signals a US recession when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises by 0.50 percent from its low during the previous 12 months. But one shortfall of using the headline unemployment…
As expected, the US ISM PMI showed service sector activity slowing in September. The Services ISM declined from 54.5 to 53.6, broadly in line with expectations of 53.5. Although the level of the headline index indicates that service sector growth remains…
As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the official cash rate at 5.5% on Wednesday, keeping policy unchanged for the third consecutive meeting. The press release underscored that while monetary policy is weighing on economic activity and easing…
There is a connection between the bond market meltdown and Republican Party’s meltdown. Investors should expect more short-term financial market volatility as a result of the triple whammy of high bond yields, high oil prices, and a strong dollar.
We unveil the ‘Joshi rule’ real-time recession indicator as a much better version of the Federal Reserve’s own ‘Sahm rule’. And we identify what would trigger these recession indicators in this week’s and future US jobs reports. Plus: airlines, soybeans, and tin are all good rebound candidates based on their collapsed short-term complexities.
The US JOLTS report sent a chill through financial markets on Tuesday. The bigger-than-expected number of job openings in August fueled investors’ concern that the Fed will be forced to maintain a hawkish stance for longer. Indeed, the number of job…
The Australian dollar was among the worst performing major currencies on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia held the cash rate at 4.1% for the fourth consecutive month. In her post meeting statement, newly appointed Governor Michele Bullock noted…
The Citi US Inflation Surprise Index has risen over the past two months after having bottomed at a three-year low in July. The good news is that the level of the index remains negative after having first fallen below zero in April – meaning inflation data is…
In the monthly Daily Insights Survey we conducted over the past week, we asked about our readers’ outlook for oil prices, Fed policy, and the global economy. On the outlook for crude oil, a larger share of respondents expect the price of oil to end the…